EDITOR’S NOTE: I just attended the County’s cooridnated emergency response meeting as first responders, cities, public works and others prepare for imminent flooding. The Wilson River is just below flood stage right now at about 4:30 pm, and expected to crest tonight. Flooding is reported on milepost 1 on Miami River Road; North Fork Road; Galloway Road, Sandlake; Brooten Road in Pacific City, from Resort Drive to the Library; and on Hwy. 131 in Netarts. Hwy. 101 is expected to close at 8 or 9 pm tonight, December 8th. There will be a detour at Latimer Road to Wilson River Loop. Wilson River Road will also be closed. It is also possible that Miami will be closed, and Alderbrook Loop may also be closed. The rivers are expected to continue to rise throughout tomorrow, as Gordon reports below, more rain is in the forecast. Do not drive through flooded areas. Obey road closures – turn around, don’t drown.
If you need sand bags, sand and sand bags are available at Tillamook County Public Works north gate off Brookfield Drive; and sand/sand bags are also available at Manzanita Public Works. There have been no storm related power outages or other road issues at this time. Stay safe out there everyone!
By Gordon McCraw, Meteorologist for the Tillamook County Pioneer
Yes Tillamook, we are still expecting a prolonged period of moderate to heavy rain from several surges of moisture rich atmospheric rivers expected to cross the region. The first of at least two surges, came throught this morning. A look at the satellite picture, and the models, suggest the hose will be pointed a little further north than the previous models, this morning it appears to be pointed north of Lincoln County to Salem, on up into Washington. It is still expected to bring the Tillamook area moderate to heavy rain today with 1” to 2” expected toda,y and another 2” to 3” tonight, with 4 to 7” expected in parts of the Coast Range. This is expected to drive the flow rates of the area river up into Minor Flood Stage later tonight and tomorrow, including the Wilson and Nehalem Rivers. The Trask River is expected to get near bankfull tomorrow also. The Wilson River currently has about a 70% shot of reaching Moderate Flood Stage of 15.5’ tonight, and a 50/50 shot at reaching Major Flood Stage. The Nehalem River is also expected to reach Flood Stage later tomorrow night and crest later Wednesday morning, and has about a 25% chance of reaching Moderate Flood Stage. I add my usual disclaimer that these times and levels are subject to change with the next updated forecast because of changing rainfall projections. Now, an optimist would suggest there is currently a chance that the rivers won’t reach these levels as the rain rates are sometimes overestimated in the models. My view is this, it is better to have taken actions to prepare for the Moderate to Major flooding and not have needed to do so, rather than to take no action – that was needed. No harm, no foul on the first way, but on the second way, there is an unnecessary loss of property and a much greater safety hazard. This being said, now is the time to prepare and to take appropriate preparedness actions, before the flooding starts and you can’t safely complete your necessary actions.
Now, I have addressed the first surge of moisture. There is a second surge expected to move in tomorrow night into Wednesday morning, that appears will not be quite as strong as today’s, but will still bring moderate, to occasional heavy rain to the area. It is forecasted to bring another 2” to 4” of rain during this period, which obviously aggravates any flooding issues because of the additional runoff. In both of the systems, for today and tomorrow, the winds will be moderately gusty also, but with the saturated ground, these winds, that could be gusting to 40 in town and up near 50 at the beaches, could still cause trees to fall which in turn threatens some power outages. Under conditions like this, landslides are also not uncommon. Also know that with prolonged periods of heavy rain, it is not uncommon to see Urban and Small Stream Flooding in the County also. Suddenly the small creeks and streams aren’t so little anymore. Remember the NWS slogan, Turn Around, Don’t Drown. If there is ponding on the roadway, it is not worth the risk of ruining your car and there have been instances, in Tillamook, that there was water on the road, or at least where the road had been until the culvert washed out. There is also some Tidal Overflow flooding possible the next few day as though the King Tide levels have dropped, the rising rivers and tidal anomalies may cause some ponding in the normal overflow areas during high tide.
The expected conditions have caused the National Weather Service in Portland to issue several Advisories, Watches and Warnings for Tillamook due to the wind and flooding concerns. These will all be updated as forecasts and conditions change for, and during these events, so, it is best to go to weather.gov/Portland to see the latest ones.
So finally, the last atmospheric river weakens later Wednesday night, but we will continue to see mainly light to occasionally moderate rain into Thursday. After that, we have a chance of light rain that persists into and through the weekend.
Lastly, know that I have seen instances where one river basin gets dumped on causing its tributaries to flood, when other basins didn’t. Also know that the above is based on experience and models. These forecasts can and will change before and during the event. As the event approaches, the frequency of the Advisories, Watches and Warning will increase. When you see another Flood Warning for the same river come out, this means something likely changed from the previous one, read it to be sure though.
And there you have it Tillamook. Get ready to be ready, keep a close eye on the weather and look at tripcheck.com for state highway closures before you head out the door. Stay safe everyone.