By Jim Heffernan
Finding truth is difficult. Contrasting messages swirl about continuously. Inspired by the book, “The Scout Mindset” by Julia Galef, I’ve volunteered to be a scout. I am looking for truth. I have some qualifications, but I’m not infallible. If you think I’ve been decieved, please let me know. Maybe it takes more than one scout to ferret out the truth. The threats that face us can only be dealt with if we know the truth.
Multiple airstrikes have been made on Tehran and 14 other cities in Iran by U.S. and Israeli aircraft. The stated purpose of the airstrikes is to remove the nuclear threat and to effect regime change. We were told 7 months ago that Iran’s nuclear capability was “obliterated” by airstrikes on three targets in Iran. Preliminary reports indicate that 48 senior members of Iran’s government were killed by the attacks. Our (and Israel’s) technical prowess enable us to strike when and where we want.
We’ve entered into a war with Iran. All wars are unpredictable and end up costing much more than expected. Innocent men, women and children will be sacrificed. Trump expects that the power vacuum in Iran will be filled with a democratic government. It hasn’t worked for us before. ISIS, Al Kaeda, and Hormuz have been decapitated and always managed to grow a new head. We do not have a good exit strategy. Our failure in the wars with Viet Name, Iraq, and Afghanistan were caused by the same deficiency.
Reza Pahvlavi, the 66-year-old eldest son of the Shah who was expelled in 1979, may provide workable exit strategy. He is advocating for a democratic government chosen by an internationally supervised election. Calcified divisions in Iranian society may prevent it from happening. Iranians protesting in the streets could be heard chanting Reza’s name. Protests were brutally put down as government forces killed an estimated 30,000.
I learned a lesson about sources with this report. My information about Reza Pahlavi came strictly from the Washington Post and The Guardian. The New York Times did not mention him.
My assessment is that Iran will go through a bloody civil war between secular segments and the established theocratic regime. Democracy will eventually prevail, but not without huge losses in Iran. I expect the old regime will revenge itself on America and Israel before it’s over. Probably in ways that will come as a surprise.
Even if the end result is a democratic Iran, I fear we have tarnished our own moral compass by ignoring our Constitution and launching a war strictly on the president’s orders.