By Gordon McCraw, Meteorologist for the Tillamook County Pioneer
Looking at the temperatures early this morning I saw the Arctic Air was east of Hood River. The temperatures west of Hood River were mainly in the mid and upper 30s, while east of Hood River they were in the mid to low teens, and north of that into Washington, they were in the single digits with some negative numbers showing up also. This morning we are seeing light rain with temperatures in the low 40s with westerly winds as a low pressure area moves eastward in the Pacific toward the Oregon Coast. Later today the winds will shift and become more easterly at 5-10, and the temperatures will start to fall along with the snow level, which is around 1500’ this morning. By around sunset, the temperature will have fallen to around 36 and the snow level down below 1100’ so more snow can be expected across the Coast Range passes through tonight. So, for the lower levels, tonight, we can expect more rain, then some snow, then some freezing rain as the temperature continues to fall below freezing, and the snow level is down around 900’. The winds will be increasing to easterly 14-18 gusting to 30, and with the overnight temperatures dropping to near 21, the winds chill for anyone outside will be in the single digits.
Now, for tomorrow, Saturday, things look to get really ugly, with the high temperature only climbing to near 29, this means that the area can see rain, snow, freezing rain or even some sleet, and the precipitation could be heavy at times, then add in some easterly winds 20-25 gusting to near 40, which could also give you some blowing snow. Total ice accumulation could be as much as 0.1 to 0.2”, throw in there maybe an inch of snow and sleet. That takes care of tomorrow during the day, tomorrow night looks to bring similar conditions with rain, snow, sleet and freezing rain along with some easterly winds 15-20 gusting to near 35 causing some patchy blowing snow. This could bring another 0.1” of ice on top of what is already there, and maybe another ½” of snow. Oh, and tomorrow night’s low temperature is around 19, putting the windchill down closer to zero. As is always the case with approaching low pressure systems, there is some variation on where the models have it coming ashore. This can affect the precipitation totals and the maximum winds but will have little effect on the expected wind direction or the temperatures.
I should mention that the National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Watch valid from 4pm this evening through 4am Sunday for the possibility of a trace to 4” of snow and a trace to 0.4” of ice along with winds 30-50 across the Coast Range into our area. They mention that this will make for hazardous travel conditions as well as causing a concern for tree damage and power outages.
It looks like Sunday morning the low will be east of the area as a ridge of high pressure builds in over the region. The good news from this is we can expect mostly sunny skies with warming temperatures and decreasing easterly winds. The high that afternoon is around 38, but we will still have frozen temperatures that morning through around noon so whatever is on the roads, will not melt until in the afternoon, and the temperature is expected to fall below 32 a little after sunset, on its way to the nighttime low of near 24, so any remaining moisture on the ground will refreeze.
Monday will be partly sunny, dry and breezy, the high near 43, then in comes some clouds ahead of the next system that will bring rain back in by Tuesday with rain likely Wednesday and Thursday, the highs warming into the low 50s by midweek, the lows in the mid and upper 30s.
So, to summarize, Coast Range could see dangerous travel conditions starting this evening with ice and snow that makes its way down to the coast later tonight, and these conditions will persist through early Sunday. There is about a 60% chance of 1” or more of snow in the Coast Range passes this evening through early Sunday with about a 30% chance of 1 inch of snow down to the coast. It is possible that there will be periods of heavy rain, snow, and sleet with freezing rain possible also. Time to bring the three “P”s inside, Plants, Pets and People as we are looking at the coldest temperature this winter season starting tonight through around Tuesday morning.
I have heard from several people about their concern that this unusually cold event is taking place and wondered why. Well, sorry to say, they do occur somewhere in the U.S. more often than you realize but sparing us. There was one that occurred in January 2014, and was similar to many other cold outbreaks that have occurred in the past, including several notable colder outbreaks in 1977, 1982, 1985 and 1989. It has been a few years since Oregon was affected by one, but here it is. So, what is a Polar Vortex? Well, it is a large low pressure area and cold air that normally sits over the pole in the winter, but is sometimes dragged south by the jet stream. There are several things the polar vortex is NOT. Polar vortexes are not something new. The term “polar vortex” has only recently been popularized, bringing attention to a weather feature that has always been present. It is also not a feature that exists at the Earth’s surface. Weather forecasters examine the polar vortex by looking at condition’s tens of thousands of feet up in the atmosphere; however, when we feel extremely cold air from the Arctic regions at Earth’s surface, it is sometimes associated with the polar vortex. This is not confined to the United States either. Portions of Europe and Asia also experience cold surges connected to the polar vortex. By itself, the only danger to humans is the magnitude of how cold temperatures will get when the polar vortex expands, sending Arctic air southward into areas that are not typically that cold.
So, that’s it for this edition. Again, everyone be extra careful the next few days. Only go out in the mess when you absolutely must. This is Meteorologist Gordon McCraw with the Tillamook County Pioneer saying…stay warm and safe everyone.
