By Gordon McCraw, Meteorologist for the Tillamook County Pioneer
The radar early this morning showed the rain moving in, but at first, not much was making it to the ground as the air was so dry at the surface. This did finally bring some light showers that became more frequent as the air became more saturated with the subtropical moisture. We started to see some rain this afternoon ahead of a warm front that will transition to an atmospheric river event to bring moderate, occasionally heavy rain into the area this evening and tonight. The heavier rain is expected tonight into tomorrow morning, starting up near the Olympic Peninsula in Washington, then drifting southward across our area later tonight into tomorrow morning. This activity could also cause a thunderstorm or two. It appears the system will likely bring us between 1.5” to 3” of rain today and tonight, as well as ramp up the winds tonight, becoming southerly 10-20 gusting to 35-40. The temperatures, with these southerly winds, only drop to near 51.
As I mentioned, the heavier rain period continues tomorrow, and we still have the thunderstorm threat. The winds do start to ease in the afternoon, becoming southerly 8-12 gusting to 18, afternoon high temperatures near 61. By tomorrow night, the front has moved on and mostly cloudy skies have moved in as the rain chance starts to ease, the winds becoming westerly 4-8 tomorrow night, lows near 47.
The two-day event most likely brings us between 2” to 4” of rain, but as the rivers are still on the low side, River Flooding concerns remain low, though with the periods of heavy rain, Urban and Small Stream Flooding is possible. On the grand spectrum of rain, there is a small chance we could see only around 1” of rain on the low side, or a slight chance of upwards of 5” on the high side, all depending on what the atmospheric river actually does. The above forecast reflects the current modeling, and our best guess, on what it will do.
We have a bit of a break during the day Friday but then here comes another front, and potentially another atmospheric river event by Friday night. Our problem is the models have started showing different pictures on this system. Some have the rain moving in on Friday evening while others hold it off until later Friday night or early Saturday morning. They are also starting to increase the amount of expected rain from the system. It was looking like this system would bring us maybe ½ to 1” of rain, but some of the latest models are showing upward of 2” in a 24-hour period Saturday. This could push some of the rivers up to near bankfull, and/or bring periods of Urban and Small Stream Flooding again. The bottom line, stay tuned and watch the forecast closely, and maybe consider your plans if minor flooding does take place into the weekend, especially if you live in a flood prone area. I guess I should also mention, this will bring breezy conditions back into the area also.
So, the official forecast for Saturday is rain with possible thunderstorms, turning to showers with possible thunderstorms in the afternoon, breezy, highs near 61, more of the same Saturday night, lows near 48.
Rainy and breezy again Sunday, still the chance of thunderstorms, highs near 58, lows near 49, then over to showers and possible thunderstorms for Monday into Tuesday, highs near 56, lows near 48.