By Gordon McCraw, Meteorologist for the Tillamook County Pioneer
We continued to see the cutoff low pressure area in the Pacific, west of northern California, stream wrap-around moisture northward toward our area today. The models usually have a hard time forecasting cutoff lows as they lack steering currents so can do whatever they do, and this one is no exception. With a trough of low pressure to the north and the low to the south, it looks like we are in-between, or split flow area. What this means for us is the clouds should clear tonight, and with the clear skies and light winds, radiational cooling should allow the overnight temperatures to drop down near a chilly – 36. With the moisture and the cold temperatures, we will likely see some frost in the early morning hours.
This setup, along with a blocking high pressure ridge, will bring us some sunny skies tomorrow and Friday, with warming temperatures reaching 60 by the afternoon on Friday. We also see some dry, relatively light easterly winds. Thursday night looks mostly clear with the lows down near 38, but late Friday night it looks like “wet” returns. It appears we will have a trough of low pressure dropping down from the northwest over the weekend, putting an end to the blocking high pressure in the Pacific, while also weakening and pushing the cutoff low pressure off California inland towards the east, which causes our winds to become more southwestward.
All this to say, the clouds roll in Friday night, then the rain in the early morning hours Saturday, with rain likely Saturday and Sunday, high temperatures around 54, lows around 40. It being that time of year, our friends with the Portland NWS point out there are no real concerns for river flooding, or significant winter weather travel concerns, with the usual caveat, “at this time!”
The models are starting to shift to show a ridge of high pressure moving in on Monday, which would reduce the chance of rain, but it also looks like the ridge slides east some Tuesday as a weak disturbance rides up the flow and brings us some rain on Tuesday, so, call it a slight chance of rain Monday with some rain likely Tuesday, highs near 57, lows near 43.