By Gordon McCraw, Meteorologist for the Tillamook County Pioneer
The weather picture today is a low pressure area over the eastern part of the state with the associated trough extending southwestward into central California. To our west there is the high pressure ridge that extends northeastward into Canada. The end result for us is a continued onshore flow that pushes in the marine clouds again tonight, the winds do die off with the low down near 54.
Tomorrow the low drifts eastward into Idaho as the ridge also shift southeastward toward the coast. This will allow for partial clearing of the marine clouds in the afternoon, the winds again northwesterly 5-10, highs near 67, then with the shift, we see partly cloudy skies tomorrow night, winds northerly 4-8 and diminishing, lows near 52.
Thursday, we see improving and warming conditions with mostly sunny skies, winds becoming northwesterly 5-10, highs climbing up to near 71, then some partly cloudy skies again that night, light winds, lows near 52.
The models continue to be mixed on how warm Friday on through the weekend will be. It looks like the ridge will flatten Friday as a trough of low pressure moves into British Columbia. This trough is associated with a low pressure center that moves into the Gulf of Alaska. The somewhat weaker ridge will cool us down a few degrees so look for mostly sunny skies with highs near 68, then a mostly clear but breezy night, lows near 48.
The uncertainty grows over the weekend: the question, will it be warm, or even warmer Saturday and Sunday? The variation is not as great for the coast as it will have the cooler, breezy onshore flow to help moderate the temperatures, so sunny skies for Saturday and Sunday, afternoon temperatures climbing to around 70 degrees, and mostly clear nights, lows near 50.
The indicators are that the first week of July, including the holiday on the 4th, will be sunny, hot and dry, especially over in the valley. Temperatures at the coast will likely warm into the low to mid 70s. The National Weather Service Portland highlights this pattern looks to elevate fire weather concerns down the road as it appears likely there will be a prolonged period of warming and drying of fuels above and inland from the marine layer (the coast range eastward). Throw in the expected fireworks and the dangers obviously increase. It does look like things settle down and we see cooler conditions starting the 5th.