By Gordon McCraw, Meteorologist for the Tillamook County Pioneer
And a happy Monday to ya Tillamook. I continue to mend from the surgery, not 100% yet, but much improved from a couple of weeks ago. I thought I would slowly start to get back in the swing of things. Spring and Summer is a good, and usually slow, time to start offering a, “pro bono” weekly forecast on Mondays, unless there is some significant weather likely to impact the region in between.
So, buckle up folks, and here we go with this week’s forecast. Today, we have an upper level trough sliding through that is spreading some showers across the area. This trough could also trigger a thunderstorm or two that could give some small hail also. This trough is expected to be east of the area by this afternoon so the activity should diminish. Winds today are westerly 8-12, afternoon highs near 52. Tonight, we expect a low pressure area will drop down and enhance the shower threat and again give us a chance of thunderstorms with small hail starting around midnight. The winds becoming southerly 5-10, lows tonight near 40.
More showers expected tomorrow morning, along with that chance of thunderstorms though the activity will slowly diminish in the afternoon, the southerly winds becoming more westerly 5-10, highs near 53. This system moves east of the area tomorrow night, so the activity diminishes as an upper level ridge of high pressure starts to build in, bringing us some partly cloudy skies and light winds, the low dropping to near 38.
Wednesday looks to be dryer and warmer with mostly sunny skies returning, winds westerly 4-8, the high near 56. The models suggest another disturbance rides across in the flow and gives us more clouds and an increasing chance of showers overnight Wednesday, the low near 42.
We see a better chance of showers Thursday morning, with partly sunny skies, the afternoon high is still near 56. We keep a chance of showers Thursday night, the lows again near 42.
Friday is “iffy” as there is a weak ridge moving across that could allow another disturbance to drop in so we do have a chance of showers Friday then the models show another trough of low pressure moving in that gives us a better chance of showers Friday night through Saturday and on into Sunday, highs Friday and Saturday likely in the low 60s before dropping back into the upper 50s by Sunday, lows in the mid 40s.
I took a quick look at the charts from the Climate Prediction Center to see what they think about the May Long Range Outlook. This shows we are likely to see an above average probability of precipitation with below average temperatures through May 12th. To conflict with this, for the month of May, it suggests below average precipitation probability with a probability of above average temperatures. To put it into some perspective, I guess this means we are wetter and cooler the first half of May then turn dryer and warmer the second half, of course, all subject to change without notice.