By Gordon McCraw, Meteorologist for the Tillamook County Pioneer
Today’s weather was still being influenced by a high pressure ridge, though it drifted east a little. It did manage to give us another mostly sunny day today with relatively light winds, and a high in the low 70s. We will see increasing clouds tonight though, then a chance of light showers after midnight as a weak and dying front approaches. So we can expect mostly cloudy skies with that chance of some light showers in the early morning hours, some calm winds, the low dropping to near 49.
We see another weak front move in tomorrow that gives us a better chance of some rain or rainshowers, the winds becoming southwesterly 4-8, the afternoon high temperature only up near 64. Still a chance of some light showers tomorrow night, some patchy fog possible with the light winds, lows again near 49.
Yet another weak system gives us a chance of showers Wednesday, the winds becoming westerly 4-8, high temperatures around 62. The chance of showers diminishes by midnight, again some patchy fog possible with calm winds, lows dropping to near 44.
A weak ridge of high pressure moves across on Thursday bringing us a mostly sunny day, the high near 65, then a weak trough slides across the top of the ridge and brings in another slight chance of showers after midnight Thursday, the low near 47.
The models get mixed after that but, for now anyway, Friday is looking like a low pressure area, and an associated trough, will be out off of the Oregon coast, in the eastern Pacific. The wrap around moisture could spell more showers Friday with a chance still on Saturday, then we have another low pressure area pushing in more showers Sunday into Monday. After that, it appears high pressure returns for Tuesday to bring back the fair, dry, and mild conditions through at least midweek. Again, there is some variations in the models so this could change as the models become better aligned in the next day or two.
So, I missed that the Climate Prediction Center issued the Monthly Outlook for October so I will include it today. The forecast issued September 30th for the month of October shows equal probabilities of above or below normal precipitation for the month, and a 33-40% chance of above normal temperatures for the month. They do say that for the period of October 14-20 that they are leaning slightly towards above normal precipitation for that period, with a better chance of above normal temperatures for that same period.
