By Gordon McCraw, Meteorologist for the Tillamook County Pioneer
So, we had a cold front pass through over the weekend, then we saw some scattered showers during the day. Tonight, we are kind of between systems with a weak ridge moving across the area, ahead of the next system. This means tonight we briefly dry out and with calm winds, early morning patchy fog is possible, the low temperature tonight near 38.
It looks like more clouds and some moisture associated with a trough of low pressure ride over the ridge tomorrow, and will bring in more rain starting tomorrow morning, the winds becoming southeasterly 5-10, the high again near 50. The rain continues tomorrow night, the winds southerly 8-12, overnight lows with the warmer southerly winds, near 42.
We transition to showers on Wednesday with the winds becoming southerly 8-14 gusting to 20, highs up near 55, look for more showers Wednesday night, still with the gusty winds, the lows that night only drop to near 48. It is looking like for the Tuesday/Wednesday period we will see from around ¾” to 1 ¼” of rain for that two-day period.
Now the bad news for Thanksgiving Day, it looks like we will continue to see the showers moving through the area for Thursday, with the afternoon highs near 56, the overnight lows near 44.
Friday, the models start to get mixed on another incoming system. It appears we will see scattered showers that morning before transitioning back to steady rain by the afternoon, the high near 54, still a chance of rain Friday night, the low near 40.
Now, for the weekend we see a couple of scenarios, which is caused by the uncertainty in the models on how cold it will get, and on how much rain we will get, all driven by the exact track of the system, which has also been changing from model run to model run. The majority of models suggest we will see cooler air moving in but a few of the other models suggest the temperature will be 5-10 degrees warmer. For now, the weekend forecast is for rain and rainshowers Saturday and Sunday with highs in the low 50s and lows in the mid 30s. But, if the overnight temperatures are colder than this, we are talking accumulating snow across the Coast Range Passes, especially at night, and even a low level rain/snow mix possible over in the valley. The temperatures will be driving just how low that snow goes. Hopefully, the models will paint a clearer picture over the next couple of days. Something to watch if you have travel plans for the holidays.
I guess it’s that time of year. For now, this is meteorologist Gordon McCraw wishing everyone a Happy and Safe Thanksgiving.