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By Gordon McCraw, Meteorologist for the Tillamook County Pioneer
And here we are with the first forecast for 2026. First though, let’s look back at some of the numbers for 2025. Using a weather station there in the North Main area, I saw that it recorded about 89.93” of rain for the year which is a little below the average of 93.51” The warmest day of 2025 was on September the 16th when it got up to around 89 while the coldest was on January 19th when it dipped to near 23 degrees. Now as for the averages for January, it looks like we have 52 for a high and 37 for the low. From what I have seen so far, I would say January is also a wet month.
Now, the current forecast. With a low pressure area and trough moving eastward from northern California through central and northeastern Oregon, and another system moving down from British Columbia, we are left in between with a weak ridge of high pressure that gave us a relatively nice, but cool day today. Tonight though, we see some patchy early morning fog, then some increasing clouds as the next weather system approaches from the northwest. The winds tonight will become light from the southeast and the low drops to around 36.
So, we see the first front bringing rain in again after around 4am tomorrow morning, with breezy southerly winds starting out at 10-15 gusting to 20 but becoming 15 to 20 gusting to 35 as the system moves through. The area transitions to showers with possible thunderstorms tomorrow evening, the high temperature around 51. More showers with possible thunderstorms are expected tomorrow night with westerly winds 8 to 12 gusting to 25, the overnight low only near 48.
Wednesday, another front pushes in the rain later that morning, then the front passes through and we again transition to showers with possible thunderstorms through that afternoon as more unstable air moves in. As is usually this time of year, any thunderstorms or heavy showers could also produce some gusty winds with a period of small hail. Look for the rain and rainshowers to continue Wednesday night. High temperatures for Wednesday are only near 48, the overnight low near 39. There is a chance that the snow level could drop low enough that the Coast Range passes could see some snow or a mix with accumulating snow possible above around 2000’.
There is a high threat of sneaker waves at the coast from Wed, 1/7 through Fri, 1/9. An enhanced threat of sneaker waves will increase the risk of injury or death for beachgoers. Waves can move logs and heavy debris onto the beach, potentially knocking over or pinning down unsuspecting beachgoers. Never turn your back on the ocean.
More rain or rainshowers are expected Thursday, then it looks like a ridge of high pressure will decrease the rain chance later Friday morning with only a slight chance of rain remaining for the weekend, though a couple of the models show a disturbance riding over the ridge giving us a chance of rain for the weekend. High temperatures remain in the mid 50s, lows in the low 40s.