“The Government of Spain will not applaud those who set the world on fire just because they show up with a bucket.” – Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez
By Marc C. Johnson
(Above) A real picture of Don the Bomber – he’s on the left.
Two things are certain: Donald Trump’s war on Iran was (apparently) an extraordinary display of 21st Century technology and powerful military might, and also an astounding, even historic strategic defeat.
I say “apparently” with regard to military might since, face it, we don’t really know.
There have been precious few journalists in any location that might confirm the overall military success of Operation Trump Face Plant.
We basically have the word of Pete Hegseth, the secretary of defense, or as he is reportedly called inside the Pentagon Dumb McNamara.
We may never know the extent of damage inflicted by Iran on U.S. assets in the Middle East or how many U.S. personnel have been injured.
It’s like we went to war in Vietnam and there was no David Halberstam or Neil Sheehan or Malcolm Browne to report what really happened.
We really don’t know much beyond Hegseth’s bluster and Trump’s demented claims.
What is certain is that Trump, as they say, screwed the pooch.
Massive self-inflicted wounds to American credibility and leadership. U.S. ability to rely or even influence traditional allies severely damaged. Untold negative impacts on world economic stability.
The financial cost will be staggering.
The reputational damage likely last beyond the life of many of us.
And the strategic wins go to Iran, Russia and China.
You might say it’s more or less what you would expect to happen when you put a guy who bankrupt a casino in charge of the U.S. military and turn him loose with no adult supervision.
Oh, well, at least he didn’t bomb them back to the Stone Ages (sic).
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There is no Trump plan beyond “winning” the next news cycle.
Here are some of things that I think worry about.
- Iran will now have even more motivation to develop a nuclear weapon. Trump has now twice claimed the total destruction of Iran’s nuclear capability, but since it’s Trump saying it you can’t believe a word he says. A lesson of the modern world for nations like Iran is simply get your own nuke.
- While Iran will almost certainly press ahead to have a nuclear weapon it’s also realized that it has had a powerful deterrent all along – closing the Strait of Hormuz. As The Atlantic’s Nancy Yousseff wrote today, “over the course of this war, Tehran discovered that a deterrent already exists that can shock the world’s economy and force a cease-fire with the world’s superpower. It was always right there, winding its way along the Iranian coast toward the Arabian Sea.”
- Trump has no capacity to learn from mistakes, his or anyone else’s. But that is no excuse for the rest of us. He doesn’t read history. U.S. sponsorship of the coup deposing Iran’s democratically elected government in 1953 is mostly forgotten in our country, not in Iran, so he can’t learn from that experience. But that is no excuse for the people around him. Trump completely under estimated the Iran regime. Had he ever read anything about Vietnam he would have known the error in such thinking. A lazy, stupid, arrogant man has blundered his way to the brink of existential chaos. He will, of course, do it again … and again.
- What will he do next? Try to end the U.S. relationship with NATO? Start blustering again about Cuba? Pivot back to Greenland? We know he will desperately try to move on to the next bit of chaos. It is what he does.
As Trump Swings on Iran, Congress Is Absent and G.O.P. Leaders Mum
We also know that there will be no significant Republican reaction, let alone opposition to Trump’s disastrous behavior.
Here’s the New York Times on congressional Republicans gutlessly going along, silently:
It was the latest instance of congressional Republicans, who have deferred to Mr. Trump on matters large and small since he began his second term, ceding their prerogatives and much of their power to the White House. In this case, their relative silence also helped them avoid wading into what has become a messy intraparty debate over the war, as elements on the right criticize the president for plunging the United States into what could be a prolonged and costly conflict.
In moments of giddy fantasy I think surely these Republicans will start finding ways to distance themselves if only in the interest of political self preservation. The party’s polling is brutal. The midterm election is a little over six months away, after all.
But the fleeting feeling that sanity just might return passes as I apply a cold cloth to the forehead and admit the obvious – it’s not going to happen.
Congressional Republicans might have stopped him in 2016.
They had a chance during the first impeachment.
They could have – and easily so – convicted him after January 6th and he would have been relegated to the place he belongs – the dust bin of history.
They might have rejected him in 2024.
There is no bottom. None.
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Any politician who can justify that presidential “message” – and that happened just 48 hours ago – is not going to stop this crazy bastard.
As Chris Christie, the former New Jersey governor, said recently:
“I think anybody who follows politics right now can tell there are no principles left in my party,” Christie said during an interview at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government on Monday night. “And even for people who agree with some of the stuff the president is doing, if you’re really honest with yourself, you know it’s not based on principle. He wakes up every morning and tries to figure out what is the best thing for him to do in his self-interest that day, and that day only. And if it changes the next day, he’ll change.”
And so will the Republican Party.
The protests must continue.
The lawsuits must continue.
The press scrutiny must continue, and become more direct and urgent.
The voter registration drives must be determined and effective.
No one will save us or democracy. It’s up to us.
Pray to God it’s not too late.
It’s difficult to be an optimist in today’s world and I’m not all that optimistic, but I do focus on realism and try to populate my writing with solid sourcing and not merely opinion. I write these pieces to offer a perspective based on history and particularly American political history since 1900.
These essays are free, but a financial contribution helps support my writing and research, including a new book in progress.
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Many thanks.