NEWS UPDATE FROM STATE REPRESENTATIVE DAVID GOMBERG: Grow Modestly or Not at All?

By State Representative David Gomberg

9/15/2025
Dear Friends and Neighbors,

One of the state’s leading economic observers says Oregon’s growth is over.

As Oregon’s political and business leaders prepare for a summit later this year, they asked John Tapogna, the former president of the consulting firm ECOnorthwest, to survey the state’s current condition and take a look at its future. Tapogna identified five major challenges the state faces: a housing shortage; poor performance in K–12 schools; wildfires; overreliance on income taxes; and ambivalence about growth. He notes that the one that scares him the most—wildfires—is the one over which Oregonians have the least control.

I read this analysis with interest, concern, and a bit of skepticism. I had questions. And I had areas of disagreement. But overall, I found the assessment required reading for decision-makers focused on our collective future.

What Tapogna found is sobering—more Oregonians are dying than being born, and those being born are entering an educational system whose test scores have plummeted, despite new spending. In short, he says, the boom days are over. Overall, Oregon’s old way of doing things, Tapogna says, won’t work anymore.

Oregon’s strengths include:

Natural Beauty That Draws Talent. Oregon mountains, forests, coastline and climate continue to attract people – especially when paired with livability and access.
Urban Growth Capacity Without Sprawl. The state has room to grow, but land use rules require an update.
Innovation Legacy That Builds What’s Next. From shipyards to semiconductors to the running revolution, Oregon has a habit of making the improbable real – and could again.
Clean Energy Resources for a Low-Carbon Economy. With strong wind and solar capacity, Oregon is positioned to lead as demand for clean, affordable energy accelerates.

The overarching thesis here is that the Tom McCall era is over. We are used to population flowing into Oregon in large numbers. That’s finished, in part because of slowing in-migration and because Oregonians are dying faster than they are being born. Fewer workers means fewer taxpayers. Yet costs for schools, PERS, and infrastructure keep rising.

The senior population is growing twice as fast as the working-age population, and eldercare and childcare—already in crisis—are competing for the same scarce workforce.

Oregon fourth and eighth-grade test scores for reading and writing are among the nation’s worst. In the early 2000s, Oregon was in the middle in terms of National Assessment of Educational Progress performance. And a decade of pretty strong, sustained investment brought spending back up close to the U.S. average in budget terms. But now we are one of the lowest-performing, if not the lowest-performing, states.

The most significant home price gains over the past 40 years are concentrated in coastal markets. We’re one of the least urbanized of all the states. That goes back to Oregon’s historic land use planning bill. But now, home prices are rising faster than most families’ ability to buy one. Planning and preserving natural resources and open space is part of what’s made many people want to live here. But is it worth thinking about how that may need to change? How does our land use planning need to be updated to anticipate what appears to be a 25-year period of slow growth and housing shortages?

As a state, we’re fourth-highest in terms of the share of personal income devoted to income taxes. Tapogna says we should pass a sales tax, reduce the income tax, and maybe increase the property tax a little bit.

We don’t have the same problems as we had in the ’70s or the ’90s. For a long time, we were leveraging our natural beauty to draw people here. But because of the high housing prices, because of the conditions of the schools, that talent’s not going to flow in as it used to.

Oregonians continue to have a variety of opinions about economic growth and population. These are critical questions for the health of our communities, our livability, and the future of our kids and grandkids.

I had a few thoughts of my own after listening to the report a second time.

Student test results may not be as clear as our formal rankings suggest. Since 2015, school districts have been required to send notices allowing parents to opt out of achievement exams for their children. Oregon has not hit the federally mandated 95% opt-in testing rate since. The concern about a lack of workers does not correlate with our rising unemployment numbers. And concerns about population growth not sustaining the needed workforce do not consider how improved efficiency has reduced the number of workers needed for many traditional industries.

Do we need to improve school outcomes, the length of the school year, chronic absenteeism, and special education? Yes! Do we need to prepare students for the jobs that need them? Yes! Do we need more affordable housing? Yes! Do we need to find a way to replace critical infrastructure (water, sewer, roads, bridges, public safety buildings) with fewer taxpayers? Yes! Do we need to refine our readiness for natural disasters (fire, flood, snowfall, power disruptions, and eventually, a big earthquake)? Yes!!

You can read a summary of the report here in Willamette Week.
Or you can watch an hour-long webinar here.

We used to call them filberts. Then we started calling them hazelnuts like everyone else did. And just like that, sales started increasing!

The valley portion of our large district grows plenty of filberts. Ooops – I mean hazelnuts. Fortunes are continuing to improve for Oregon’s hazelnut industry, with the 2025 crop guaranteed to fetch at least 40% more than last year’s minimum price.

Farmers will earn a minimum of between $1.05 and $1.30 per pound of hazelnuts harvested this year, compared to guaranteed prices that ranged from $0.75 to $0.90 per pound for the 2024 crop.

“Across the country, ag is really suffering, so for hazelnuts to be strong, it’s helpful to everyone in ag in Oregon,” said Steve Horning, a farmer near Monroe in our district. Steve is president of the Hazelnut Growers Bargaining Association, which negotiates prices with major packers.

The upward trend indicates Oregon’s strong hazelnut market has developed some staying power, suggesting the steep price decline seen three years ago amounted to a “blip,” he said.

In the past couple of years, Oregon has surpassed Italy as the world’s second-biggest hazelnut producer after Turkey, but we could be eclipsed by Chile. In 2022, runaway inflation and high production in Turkey — the predominant global hazelnut producer — devalued that country’s crop, contributing to prices in Oregon falling by roughly half, to 40-53 cents per pound.

Oregon produces almost all of the United States’ hazelnuts, which are known for their high quality, large size, and rich flavor, making them a popular commodity in the global market. Grown primarily in the Willamette Valley with its fertile soil and ideal climate, these nuts are harvested mechanically in the fall. Oregon hazelnuts are a versatile food, eaten raw, dry-roasted, or processed into various products like butter, candy, and even used for oil and livestock feed. Me? I’m a fan of the chocolate-hazelnut pie from Chalet in Newport.

The state officially recognized the hazelnut as its state nut in 1989.

Learn more about Oregon hazelnuts here.

Here is some dry reading, but good news about workers’ comp.

Oregon employers will pay less for workers’ compensation coverage in 2026, the Oregon Department of Consumer and Business Services (DCBS) announced last week. The decline marks 13 years of average decreases in the base rate insurers use to determine how much employers must pay for medical costs and lost wages.

The reduction in costs is due to fewer claims entering the system over time, along with claims being generally less severe, according to the National Council on Compensation Insurance (NCCI). They also reflect successes in Oregon’s workers’ compensation system, which includes programs to control costs and encourage early return to work, maintain good worker benefits, ensure employers carry insurance for their workers, resolve disputes, and improve workplace safety and health.

The numbers illustrate positive, long-term trends. Employers, on average, would pay 87 cents per $100 of payroll for workers’ compensation costs in 2026, down from 91 cents in 2025. That figure covers workers’ compensation claims costs, assessments, and insurer profit and expenses. The premium per $100 of payroll will have declined by 46.5 percent from 2017 to 2026.

Oregon’s workers’ compensation premium rates have ranked favorably compared to other states for many years. Oregon had the nation’s 14th least expensive rates in 2024, according to a nationally recognized biennial study conducted by DCBS. “The continued decline in workers’ compensation costs shows the resiliency in making Oregon a safe place for workers,” said Sean O’Day, interim DCBS director. “That resiliency allows for good benefits for workers and reduced costs for employers.”

You can join public hearings for the workers’ compensation assessment and the Workers’ Benefit Fund assessment on Thursday, September 18, at 3 p.m. and 4 p.m., respectively.

Here is more news for Oregon small businesses.

Employers have seen tremendous change in employment programs, benefits, and taxes in the past five years. The COVID pandemic wreaked havoc on workers and businesses and overwhelmed the state with claims. A new computer system has come online. A new program for family leave is now in effect. And we are working harder to get people jobs as unemployment climbs.

How is all of this working?

The Oregon Employment Department (OED) is currently asking for employer feedback to understand how it can better serve the business community. The survey is designed to evaluate the customer experience on the following programs:

Unemployment Insurance
Paid Leave Oregon
WorkSource Oregon
Frances Online

Please use this link to take the survey and have your voice heard. The deadline for feedback is September 30^th: Click here to take the Employer Customer Service Survey.

Over the past week, I’ve received a number of requests for clarification on how to get a COVID vaccine in the midst of changing federal policy. Several seniors in our district have shared with me reports that they have been denied a vaccine by their pharmacist and requested that they receive a prescription from their doctor. Others have relayed issues even getting a doctor to sign off on a prescription to begin with.

This issue isn’t just confined to our district either. So why is this happening? What changed?

Changes by the Trump Administration to limit Food & Drug Administration (FDA) use authorization of the COVID-19 vaccines and a lack of clear protocols adopted by the Center for Disease Control (CDC) have created uncertainty among our insurers, pharmacies, and healthcare providers.

The CDC’s Advisory Committee for Immunization Practices (ACIP) is set to meet on September 18 and 19, which is likely when the State of Oregon will get clarified guidance on vaccine administration protocols. At present, Oregon state law prohibits the administration of vaccines without a prescription unless guidance from ACIP says otherwise.

In the meantime, Governor Kotek has been weighing a standing order to streamline vaccine access similar to that which was issued in Washington.

For now, the best way to get a COVID-19 vaccine is to speak with your healthcare provider about a prescription.

A lot of you have reached out with questions about the new small boat Paddle Permits.

Starting in 2026, there will be a $20 annual permit fee for all non-motorized boats under 10 feet. A seven-day permit is $6. This includes kayaks, rafts, and stand-up paddleboards.

You can find more information about how to get a permit here.

The funds go towards preventing invasive quagga mussels from damaging our waterways and infrastructure. Before I was in the legislature, I hadn’t even heard of them, and my first thought was maybe they’d be good with butter. Turns out, they’re not edible, just destructive.

You can read more about the challenge of invasive mussels here.

Oregon State Parks is working to address a budget gap. This revenue shortfall is due to increasing costs, the impact of higher visitation, and changes in lottery funds.

State Parks’ funding comes from three main sources. A little less than half comes from constitutionally dedicated lottery funds, about 15% comes from the agency’s share of recreational vehicle license plate fees, and roughly 35% comes from park fees from visitors. Oregon State Park operations are not funded by general fund (income tax) dollars.

Given these challenges, OPRD is taking proactive steps to close its budget gap and diversify funding sources to ensure a more resilient future for our park system. That entails a three-part strategy: first, taking a hard look internally to evaluate procurement/contracting, budgeting practices, and operational efficiencies; second, reimagining visitor experiences and advancing park stewardship; and third, making targeted fee adjustments to help stabilize revenue.

According to ORPD, each of these efforts is grounded in a commitment to long-term resilience, public service, and transparency.

What that means is that starting this fall, OPRD will no longer waive parking fees at about twenty parks. The daily parking rate is currently $10 for Oregonians and $12 for out-of-state visitors. Individuals who are camping in a state park, have an annual state parks parking permit, or bike or walk to a park are not required to pay an additional fee. The list of parks that will now charge a parking fee includes Beverly Beach and South Beach State Park.

Additionally, for stays beginning May 1, 2026, the department will increase overnight rates seasonally at the busiest parks and increase cabin and yurt prices year-round. Overnight camping rate ranges are detailed in the administrative rule.

The bottom line is that State Parks’ costs are continuing to rise, and revenue is not keeping pace. If we do nothing, we risk destabilizing the park system we all value and enjoy. The rising costs of everything, coupled with a 13% reduction in lottery funds for operations, means this budget gap will only grow. These fee changes are one part of a broader effort to maintain service levels, strengthen our Parks system, and create new opportunities for visitors, partners, and staff alike.

The Department is acting now to ensure the parks we love can thrive long into the future. Please let me know if there is any additional information you need.

OK, ok. My recent trip to Reser Stadium to watch Oregon State and Fresno football didn’t end as well as I might have hoped. As a seasoned legislator, you’d think I had somehow gotten used to seeing fumbles, poor snaps, and incomplete passes…

On a more positive note, one of my greatest joys as a legislator is meeting students in Salem and helping them better understand the legislative process. When I can, I bring them to the House chamber and share the experience of being in the arena.

Every year, around thirty civic-minded undergraduates from across OSU get firsthand experience with state policymaking through the University Legislative Scholars program. Participants visit the Legislature in Salem, advocate on behalf of OSU with lawmakers, and hear from guest speakers, including elected officials, lobbyists, and OSU President Jayathi Murthy, all to help them understand how policy is developed and how it goes on to affect society.

Later this Fall, I will meet with newly elected student leaders from OSU. It may be interesting to compare notes. More than 50 years ago, I was student body president in Corvallis. Times have changed, but the challenge of acquiring quality higher education and paying for it remains.

On Thursday, it was my joy and honor to join a large, enthused crowd and break ground for the Oregon Coast Advanced Technology & Trades (OCATT) Center.

In my brief remarks, I said that this community college is doing what community colleges do best! We’re preparing students for good, well-paying, necessary local jobs. We’re providing local employers with well-trained employees for those important jobs. And in the process, we’re making our communities stronger, more vibrant, more successful, and more livable.

I love groundbreakings because they are the start of something good and important. The only thing I like more are ribbon cuttings when we get those good, important things done!

The groundbreaking was followed by a celebratory burger lunch. But Susie and I couldn’t stay. Ten minutes after the ground was turned at the College, I was due at the PAC Center to speak in the Here Hear series. As usual, questions covered a variety of topics, including the regular and special sessions, utility rates, immigration, the future of the Big Creek Dams, civics and civility, housing, wildfires, and more. As I often say, a legislator needs to know a little about a lot of things!

We finished the day in Yachats and dinner with the Oregon Tourism Commission, aka Travel Oregon, and a host of leaders from Oregon’s Coastal visitor industry. When my turn came, I regaled them with my strong belief that Sir Francis Drake wintered in Lincoln County – not northern California – when he circumnavigated the world in 1579 – making him the first European to land on our North American Coast. “Think of the marketing potential of that story!” I told this room of professional marketers.

Logs and charts from Drake’s voyage point to Whale Cove as the location of his North American landing.

For the next week, I’ll be away with a delegation of more than 200 legislators from around the nation. I’ll still be checking email and my office will still be hard at work.

Warm Regards,