By Gordon McCraw, Meteorologist for the Tillamook County Pioneer
Monday, February 20, 2023
Well, Happy President’s Day, AKA Washington’s Birthday. With the onshore flow we did see some light rain and drizzle this morning but now we see the real pattern shift that could bring lots of snow to the Coast Range, including the passes, thru Thursday.
So, an approaching front will continue to push in the rain tonight as the snow level gets pushed down to near 2400’. The southwesterly winds becoming more westerly, 15-20 gusting to 30, lows tonight dropping to near 38, the snow level drops to near 1800’.
The front pushes thru in the early morning hours tomorrow and we transition to scattered showers with possible thunderstorms, the winds westerly 14-18 gusting to 35, highs near 44, the snow level down to near 1500’. The snow level falls to near 800’ overnight tomorrow, Tuesday Feb. 21st, winds westerly 10-15 gusting to 30; the low falls to near 34 so a low level rain/snow mix is possible with all snow possible in heavier showers with little to no accumulation likely.
Rain or show showers possible Wednesday morning becoming all rain by lunchtime, the high near 43. More rainshowers possible Wednesday night, turning to a rain/snow mix later that night with low level snow likely in any showers after midnight with the low dropping to near 24.
The shower activity diminishes Thursday so only a slight chance of widely scattered showers by noon Thursday, the high only near 37 under the partly sunny skies. Thursday night looks the coldest, with the partly cloudy skies, the lows drop to near 20.
Friday looks sunny and 42 then down to 25 that night. The slow warmup continues over the weekend with a chance of rain returning also by Saturday night or Sunday. With the temperatures still on the cool side Friday though, lower level snow is possible with any rain that develops early Saturday morning but the nighttime temperatures appear to warm above 32 after that.
So, as is always the case, we need several element to see the low elevation snow, the moisture has to be there with the cold temperatures. In this case, the moisture comes from the showers. Snow accumulation will be very variable. If you are under the shower, and the temperature is near or below freezing, you get the snow, if the showers miss you, you see little to no snow. Now, as you move up in elevation, the amount of snow will increase. The Coast Range passes could see 6-14” of snow above 1000’ for this event which could make travel difficult and dangerous at times as the showers move across. And, at the low levels, remember the temperatures are above freezing during the day, then dropping below freezing at night so icy travel is also a concern.