EDITOR’S NOTE: Here are his picks … tune into the Oscars tomorrow night March 10th on ABC (streaming online and in their app) from 4 to 7 pm PDT.
By Andrew Jenck
Let’s see if I get more categories right than last year. Apologies if I jinx your favorite.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Godzilla: Minus One carries recency, momentum and demonstrates what can be accomplished on a small budget. With the working conditions of effects artists being scrutinized, voters will want to award the rare Japanese production that didn’t overburden its staff.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Barbie is the mainstream movie that the Academy will usually award for technical achievements, but the wardrobe displayed in Poor Things is visually striking and will take the trophy.
BEST FILM EDITING
Thelma Schoonmaker of Killers of the Flower Moon carries favor, having won three Oscars in this field. Oppenheimer’s Jennifer Lane, meanwhile, has been building a solid career the past twenty years attached to previously acclaimed work. It’s a tight race, but Lane should eek out having to piece together a nonlinear story.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Poor Things features the most unique set design, and the backdrops compliment the characters’ situations to the fullest effect of this pool, giving it the advantage.
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Most of these nominations are period pieces, judged on how well they replicate that era’s fashion. Poor Things has the edge, given it’s both Victorian and surrealist; a one-two punch that should hit the vote.
BEST SOUND
The New Mexico test from Oppenheimer is a great example of sound mixing, but that’s just one scene. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning was more dependent of the department, being an action thriller. While the former, has the best single scene, M:I is more cohesive throughout the movie.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
The question isn’t “Will Barbie win?” it’s “Which song from Barbie will win?” Billie Ellish and Finneas O’Connell already struck gold for No Time to Die, and “What Was I Made For?” is similarly prestigue. As seen with last year’s song, “Nattu Nattu,” going viral and accompanied by a dynamic sequence go a long way, so voters should see the ten in “I’m just Ken.”
BEST INTERNATIONAL FIEATURE FILM
Essentially, a free space on the Oscars bingo card, whatever is nominated for Best Picture wins in this category. It may have been a tough call if Anatomy of a Fall was submitted by France, but The Zone of Interest will win unchallenged.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse is the favorite, with its greatest challenger being The Boy and the Heron. The latter has less brand recognition but comes from an aging auteur in what may be the last chance for voters to honor Miyazaki. An X factor comes in the form of Guillermo del Toro, fellow member and huge advocate of animation. His praise of the anime will sway the voters and give Miyazaki his second Oscar.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
There’s a contention of what qualifies as adaptive or original writing. Barbie and Oppenheimer are based on preexisting elements, but their scripts were more original than the other nominees, which are based on novels. Potentially, these factors may deter support. Considering voters are writers themselves, they will be more drawn to American Fiction, a film centered on writing professionally and a main character that will make them think, “He’s like me, for real.”
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Every script features a unique premise that can appeal to Academy members. A courtroom drama (Anatomy of a Fall) and a character-driven melodrama (Past Lives) are especially appealing. The Holdovers has the edge, providing the material for stellar performances and being a sort of throwback to nostalgic times.
BEST SUPPORTING ACCTRESS
Apart from Jodie Foster, every nominee has yet to win an Oscar, so there is a bit of a contest here. America Ferrera had the scene-stealing speech in Barbie. Emily Blunt is an acclaimed actor with great presence in a prestige film. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, though, is essentially co-lead in The Holdovers with her naturalistic performance; the factors should accumulate in a win for her.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
This year presents a star-studded group of actors, who have accumulated extensive careers that voters would love to award. Every performance caters to the Academy’s sensibilities: despicable characters (Ruffalo, Downey Jr., De Niro), comedically charismatic (Gosling), and struggling homosexual (Brown). Robert Downey, Jr. carries more weight, attached to a blockbuster and given a very stern role which should land Tony Stark his Oscar.
BEST ACTRESS
Emma Stone and Lily Gladstone are neck-and-neck in this race, one bombastic yet nuanced and the other reserved yet emotional. Stone’s performance is the more versatile, but actors rarely win more than one Oscar. Gladstone has the support of Di Caprio and Scorsese, who have heavily campaigned for her this award season. Plus, the Academy may be compelled to award a Native American after the infamous mistreatment of Littlefeather in 1973.
BEST ACTOR
In any other year, Cillian Murphy and Paul Giamatti would be the clear favorite, but they’re unfortunately stacked against each other. Murphy as Robert J. Oppenheimer carries much of his film, with a commanding presence throughout. Meanwhile, Giamatti is fully utilized as a character actor, greatly endearing. Murphy won at the SAG Awards which shares many of the same voters, but the Oscars in recent years have awarded veteran actors. This is the closest race, but my money is on Giamatti.
BEST DIRECTOR
Christopher Nolan is one of few auteurs who hasn’t sought out Oscars, helming summer action films. His last nomination was the war epic, Dunkirk, a favorite of voters. Oppenheimer checks off all the boxes for a director presenting a varied shot composition and bringing out an intensity from the actors. With his reputation proceeding him, Nolan will finally be an Academy Award winner.
BEST PICTURE
There is a continued debate on the Best Picture pool having ten nomination slots, yet only five of the directors and actors get nominated individually with Greta Gerwig and Margot Robbie being seen as snubs. Regardless, the ten nominees are a nice variety. Killers of the Flower Moon and American Fiction have the social commentary. The Academy faced backlash for not nominating Barbie’s Gerwig or Robbie in their respective categories, so it may be compelled to rectify it. Oppenheimer proved that a non-IP film could still attract a large audience. The rest of the nominations are from auteurs with a creative vision. It’s a tough call but given how it has won awards across multiple categories at other shows, Oppenheimer should pull the win as a statement to what should be the standard for mainstream Hollywood.