Coronavirus Update- OHA’s Latest Modeling Report Shows Need to Stay the Course

July 24, 2020

OHAs latest modeling report shows need to stay the course

OHA updated its bi-weekly modeling report earlier this week [ ], showing various trajectories for COVID-19. The modeling presents three scenarios:

* If the current transmission rate continues, new daily infections would rise steadily over the next four weeks to around 1,600 infections a day by Aug. 13, with 27 hospitalizations.
* If transmission decreased by 10 percentage points from current rates, the estimated number of new infections would decrease over time to 600 infections a day by Aug. 13 with 17 hospitalizations.
* Finally, a pessimistic scenario, in which transmission increases by 10 percentage points from the current rates, shows 2,300 new daily infections by Aug. 13 with 46 hospitalizations.

OHA State Health Officer Dr. Dean Sidelinger spoke about the projections during OHAs media availability today. Heres what he had to say:

*These projections show that were at a real turning point*: We can start to see infections drop again if we reduce transmission through some simple steps:

* Stay six feet apart.
* Avoid larger gatherings.
* Wear a mask.

*Alternatively, we can see a scenario where things get worse*: Like prior models showed, cases would keep surging and we would rapidly run out of capacity to treat people who become seriously ill.

*We have a choice based on these projections*: Do we want to work together to get COVID-19 under control? Or do we want to keep watching numbers rise and see our state move toward uncontrolled spread?

For the health of Oregonians, the choice is easy. Lets work together to put the virus on a path to fade out. Dont help it gain strength and claim the lives and livelihoods of more Oregonians.

How to stay safe if you must travel

We know summertime is usually vacation season. Although long-distance recreational travel is not recommended at this time, we want to help you stay safe if you do have to hit the road. Good planning and sanitizing can help protect you and others from COVID-19.

*Before you go*

* Pack alcoholbased hand sanitizer (containing 60-95% alcohol) and cleaning supplies.
* Bring a face covering to wear in public places (and pack a couple of extras).
* Prepare food and water for your trip to help limit having to go into stores along the way.
* When booking a room online, make sure you know what their COVID safety precautions are or call and ask.

*Along the way*

* Make sure to wear your face covering when stopping for gas, food or bathroom breaks.
* Maintain physical distancing when making stops.
* Wash your hands with soap and water for at least 20 seconds, especially after you have been in a public place, after touching surfaces frequently touched by others, after blowing your nose, coughing or sneezing, and before touching your face or eating. If soap and water arent available, use hand sanitizer.

*When you get there*

* Stay at least 6 feet apart from other people.
* Avoid crowded places.
* Avoid touching your eyes, nose and mouth with unwashed hands.
* If youre staying in a hotel, consider limiting or opting out of daily housekeeping service to reduce the number of people entering your room.

*A few tips for flying*

* Try to limit contact with frequently touched surfaces like kiosks, touchscreens and turnstiles, handrails, restroom surfaces and elevator buttons.
* Try to limit your exposure to others in the airport.
* Wear your mask in the airport and during the flight.
* Continue to practice good hand hygiene.

Outbreak reported at Norris Blueberry Farm

An outbreak of 22 cases of COVID-19 has been reported at Norris Blueberry Farm in Douglas County. The case count includes all persons linked to the outbreak, which may include household members and other close contacts to an employee.

The investigation started June 25, but the initial case count was below the threshold for public disclosure.

Oregon reports 396 new confirmed and presumptive COVID-19 cases, 9 new deaths

COVID-19 has claimed nine more lives in Oregon, raising the states death toll to 282, the Oregon Health Authority reported at 12:01 a.m. today.

Oregon Health Authority reported 396 new confirmed and presumptive cases of COVID-19 as of 12:01 a.m. today, bringing the state total to 16,104.

The new cases are in the following counties: Baker (1), Clackamas (25), Columbia (1), Crook (1), Curry (2), Deschutes (16), Douglas (6), Gilliam (1), Hood River (4), Jackson (5), Jefferson (22), Josephine (1), Klamath (2), Lane (16), Linn (7), Malheur (18), Marion (58), Multnomah (71), Polk (6), Umatilla (59), Wasco (1), Washington (54), and Yamhill (8).

Todays nine deaths are the highest number of deaths reported in a single day in Oregon since the start of the pandemic.

Oregons 274th COVID-19 death is a 61-year-old woman in Multnomah County who died July 18 in her residence. The death certificate listed COVID-19 disease, or SARS-CoV-2, as a cause of death, or as a significant condition that contributed to her death. No confirmatory testing for COVID-19 was performed, but this aligns with the CSTE probable case definition [ ] for a presumptive case, which OHA follows.

Oregons 275th COVID-19 death is a 68-year-old woman in Clackamas County who tested positive June 5 and died July 16, at Providence Portland Medical Center. She had underlying conditions.

Oregons 276th COVID-19 death is a 92-year-old man in Deschutes County who tested positive July 12 and died July 18. His place of death is being confirmed. He had underlying conditions.

Oregons 277th COVID-19 death is a 96-year-old man in Deschutes County who tested positive July 12 and died July 23, in his residence. He had underlying conditions.

Oregons 278th COVID-19 death is a 90-year-old woman in Malheur County who tested positive July 9 and died July 23, in her residence. She had underlying conditions.

Oregons 279th COVID-19 death is a 74-year-old man in Marion County who tested positive July 3 and died July 22, at Salem Hospital. He had underlying conditions.

Oregons 280th COVID-19 death is a 62-year-old woman in Multnomah County who tested positive July 18 and died July 18. More information is being confirmed.

Oregons 281st COVID-19 death is an 87-year-old woman in Umatilla County who tested positive July 10 and died July 22. She had underlying conditions. Her place of death is being confirmed.

Oregons 282nd COVID-19 death is a 69-year-old man in Umatilla who tested positive July 8 and died July 21, in his residence. He had underlying conditions.