Friday, August 14, 2026
El Nino and Weekend Weather Briefing
First, the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) issued an updated El Nino Advisory yesterday (August 13th, 2026) so I thought I would share some of the information. As was forecasted, the El Nino continues to strengthen and is still expected to become a very strong event for the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 26-27 period. They noted that convection and rainfall had been enhanced from the central to eastern Pacific, and had become suppressed over Indonesia, which were both indicators of a strengthen El Nino. The CPC also pointed out that their models, which combined multiple models from North America together, gave a 69% chance of the El Nino strengthening, with a 90% chance of becoming a very strong event, becoming a historic event. Some folks suggest this could end up being a 1 in 100 year event. The CPC also points out that with events this strong, the chances of seeing impacts consistent with El Niño are larger, but they are not guaranteed.
So, what does this mean for the Pacific Northwest? Typically, an El Nino event suggests we would be dryer and warmer than average due to the northern Jet Stream being pushed further north with the southern jet pushing into southern California, across into the Gulf then Florida, leaving us being influenced by a ridge of high pressure. It also suggests that besides the south border states into Florida, the far north-central or northeastern U.S. could be wetter than normal. The current Seasonal Outlook from the CPC which was issued in mid July for August-September-October suggests we have equal chances of seeing above or below normal precipitation with a 50-60% chance of seeing above normal temperatures.
Now, let’s talk about the short term, or weekend forecast. Well, it looks like the upper level ridge, combined with the onshore flow, will continue to push in the marine layer and clouds over the weekend, most coastal areas have a 50/50 chance of seeing mostly sunny afternoon skies with the chance increasing as you go inland. You can expect mainly light winds, the afternoon high temperatures near 68. This means the clouds come back each night along with the calm winds, maybe some patchy early morning fog, the lows around 51.
As for next week, the fair, dry, and somewhat mild conditions continue, with highs in the upper 80s, and lows in the mid 50s.
I saw a quote recently from Soloman who said, “What has been will be again, what has been done will be done again; there is nothing new under the sun.”
