By Gordon McCraw, Meteorologist for the Tillamook County Pioneer
Well, between a ridge of high pressure to the east and a low pressure area and trough to the west, we are seeing some stronger easterly winds this morning, around 15-20 gusting to 30. There are some isolated light showers moving northeasterly though the region. Looking at the satellite picture this morning I do see a low pressure area moving northward along the coast of Washington that continues to move north but I also see another low pressure area developing west of northern California that is expected to move northeastward over the weekend, just off the Oregon coast, as it weakens and continues to move up toward Vancouver Island. Some good news though, the overnight low temperatures were only down to near 43, and the only icing concerns are over towards eastern Portland and the Gorge/Hood River areas. I did see an early morning report of patchy ice over the Coast Range, but it also mentioned the road was heavily sanded.
So, there is still a chance of a shower or two today with the breezy easterly winds continuing but easing this afternoon as the low continues north, the afternoon high near 49. We see some patchy drizzle around tonight with the easterly winds 8-12, lows down near 43 again.
Tomorrow, there is an increasing chance of rain as the low from northern California continues its track northward along the Oregon coast. This will bring another round of rain to our area starting by midmorning, and this will also aid in keeping the easterly winds blowing across the area, and with the colder air continuing to modify, the high temperature tomorrow climbs up to near 53. Tomorrow night the rain continues and with the low now to our northwest, the winds become more southeasterly 8-12, the overnight low temperature down to near 45.
Sunday the southerly flow at the surface, combining with an upper level weak disturbance, keeps the threat of rain across the region, and the breezy conditions returns Sunday night, the afternoon highs near 53, overnight lows Sunday near 45.
It looks like another warm front will move up across the area Monday, so we see the rain continuing Monday and Tuesday, highs near 53 still, and lows near 46. Wednesday looks rainy and breezy with another system and the rain likely continues into Thursday, the high near 55, lows near 45.
With all this rain, there are several rivers in the valley that are forecasted to reach Action Stage. The effect on the Tillamook County Rivers, which do currently show moderate flow rates, is to keep these river’s flow rates at their current levels, more or less, through the next 7 days. The long range models show continued rain, that could be heavier, through day 10, and this does cause the rivers to rise a little above current levels but still below Action Stage. This is pretty far out and will likely change so we have plenty of time to see how this progresses.