By Gordon McCraw, Meteorologist for the Tillamook County Pioneer
The pattern is shifting today from the dry, sunny, but cold high pressure ridge, to a series of fronts that will bring us rain and winds, and even a chance of thunderstorms, for the rest of the week, weekend, and into the start of next week.
The easterly flow we have seen shifted, becoming more westerly, then southerly, as the high pressure ridge weakens and gets pushed eastward by a trough and front rotating towards the coast tonight. Look for increasing clouds with an increasing chance of rain later tonight with the low temperature dropping to near 37.
The rain is likely by the early morning hours tomorrow as the front moves in, winds southeasterly 5-10, then we transition to post-frontal showers with possible thunderstorms tomorrow evening, the winds becoming westerly 5-10, highs near 50. We see more showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms tomorrow night until the next front pushes in more rain starting a little before midnight, winds becoming southerly 4-8, lows near 39. Total rain from this first event between ½ to 1”.
Friday starts out rainy, then again transitions to showers with possible thunderstorms by the afternoon, the winds increasing from the west 15-20 gusting to 35, highs near 52, more showers and possible thunderstorms Friday night, still windy, lows near 54. Look for another ½ to 1” of rain Friday.
The routine duplicates again Saturday, starting out with showers with a chance of isolated thunderstorms but transitioning to rain by the afternoon, breezy, highs near 54, cloudy and rainy Saturday night, lows near 45.
Sunday conditions appear to be setting up favorably for an atmospheric river type event, bring warmer rain into the Pacific northwest, possibly bringing heavy rain into the area, especially in the Coast Range with a possible 3 to 4” of rain possible in the 24 hour period starting Saturday night through Sunday night. This has the potential to push our rivers, especially the Nehalem River, up to bankfull. At this time, it appears that none of the rivers get to Flood Stage. As always, this should be watched closely between now and the weekend for any significant changes to the forecasts. It might be a good idea for residents and businesses to discuss their plans should the forecasts change to show possible flooding. As you can see in the current Nehalem River forecast, cresting is around Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
Monday we are likely to see another warm front pushing more rain and winds into the area that persist through Tuesday into Wednesday, then it appears the rain eases some Thursday and Friday, highs up near 58, lows near 49.
Listen here to Gordon’s KMUN Weather Forecast: