By Gordon McCraw, Meteorologist for the Tillamook County Pioneer
There is a low pressure area in the Gulf of Alaska with its associated trough extending southwestward that is deepening which is causing the high pressure ridge over the western U.S. to build stronger. This combination gives us a fairly nice day with some drier east winds. The trough will push a front towards the coast tonight giving us increasing cloudiness, still with the east winds 8-12, lows near 41.
The clouds further increase tomorrow as a front gets closer, then in comes the main light rain by around sunset, winds shifting to southeasterly 4-8, highs near 55. The rain continues tomorrow night as the front slows, the winds continue southeasterly 4-8, lows near 42.
Thursday morning the front moves across and briefly increases the rain which eases again in the afternoon, winds still easterly 4-8, highs near 55, then the rain becomes more spotty tomorrow night before diminishing later, before midnight, lows near 43. This will not be a big rain event with total rainfall from the system in the order of around ¼” through Thursday night.
By Friday the ridge of high pressure is returning, leaving us with partly sunny, but dry skies, the high near 57, there are some clouds still Friday night, the low near 40.
Saturday, we see the tough of low pressure, that is off to the west in the Pacific, inching closer to the coast, enough that we start to see a slight chance of rain returning that afternoon, with the chance continuing to increase Saturday night, highs near 58, lows near 41.
The rain chance further increases Sunday as the trough continues to inch closer with rain likely by Sunday night that persists into Monday, highs near 53, lows near 43.
The long range models are suggesting the rain will continue for much of next week. The good news is it shows that rain accumulation is fairly light, so river flooding concerns remain low.
Remember too, we are coming into a period of King Tides that peak tomorrow and Thursday. This can also mean some fairly low tides accompany the higher tides. I say this because there has been more than one individual in the past that got trapped on sandbars from the incoming tides taking them by surprise. As far as the waves are concerned, with the easterly winds, the waves are not too concerning. We may see some Small Craft Advisories with the system at the end of the week that could increase wave heights though.
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