By Gordon McCraw, Meteorologist for the Tillamook County Pioneer
Wednesday, December 14, 2022
Yesterday’s models didn’t pick up a weak disturbance that dropped down the east side of the ridge that gave us some cloudiness overnight along with a little moisture, otherwise we still expect the ridge to develop into an Omega Blocking Ridge, keeping the area dry and cool or cold the rest of the week. So, tonight we expect mostly clear skies with the east winds diminishing, lows near 31.
With the blocking ridge of high pressure firmly in place, tomorrow we are looking at sunny skies with light winds, highs near 48, then mostly clear skies overnight tomorrow, light westerly winds, lows near 32.
Sunny skies again Friday with easterly winds 4-8, highs near 47, then mostly clear skies again overnight Friday, light winds, lows near 31.
The models are somewhat mixed still for the scenario over the weekend and into the start of next week. Some of the models show a trough of low pressure dropping southward from British Columbia that would push some moisture down into northwestern Oregon. This would also result in a warmer flow that would bring just some light rain into the area by Sunday. However, a few of the models keep the temperatures low enough during the period to give us a slight chance of low level snow over the late night/early morning hours. So, having said all that, we go with partly sunny skies Saturday, the high near 46, then mostly cloudy skies Saturday night, the snow level dropping to near 2300’ with a slight chance of light rain, the lows near 35.
Sunday looks mostly cloudy still with the snow level down to near 1900’, a little better chance of rain by the afternoon, highs near 45, cloudy, still with that chance of rain Sunday night, lows near 34.
By Monday the model differences increase, some say the ridge will build back northward resulting in improving conditions with slightly warmer temperatures. A couple of the models stall a front over the area with the colder air hanging north of the area, into Canada. Some of the models show cold air spilling into the area thru the Gorge resulting in cooler temperatures, especially over in the valley and westward into the Coast Range, while moisture still pushes into the area.
So, for next week, at least for now, we go with mostly cloudy to cloudy skies Monday with that chance of rain, the snow level 2000-2500’ with highs near 45, lows near 34. On Tuesday, mostly cloudy skies, still that chance of rain, the highs near 43, the snow level lowering to near 1300’, then the chance of rain with a slight chance of low level snow that night as the lows fall to or below freezing late that night on in the early morning hours Wednesday.
Hopefully the models will get a little better aligned over the next couple of days and give us a clearer picture of next week’s weather.
Unrelated to the current weather, I see that another round of King Tides develops next week, peaking Friday the 23rd and again on Christmas eve, then lowering a little each day from Christmas on. These would be high enough tides that we could see Tidal Overflow Flooding in the usual spots including up in Nehalem, Fraser Rd west of Tillamook, and down in the usual spot near the Pacific City area. If we have any weather during that period, the levels could be higher than forecasted, aggravating the flooding issue. Something else to watch!