By Gordon McCraw, Meteorologist for the Tillamook County Pioneer
Thursday, March 23, 2023
We had a cold front go through the area today that was the start of the promised weather change. Behind the front, we can expect some scattered showers that, thanks to a parked cold upper level trough of low pressure, will persist through the weekend then another low pressure system brings a chance of warmer rain for next week.
So, the front pulled in some colder unstable air behind it, aided by the trough of low pressure. This in turn pulled the snow level down today to near 1500’ which will continue to fall tonight to around 1000’ after midnight. It also increased the winds which are expected to be westerly 14-18 gusting to 25 tonight, the low tonight drops to near 34. What this means for us is with the heavier showers, there is a chance of some small hail, and this could briefly cover the roads, making them slick for a period. By the early morning hours, with the temperature down near the mid 30s, the heavier showers could pull the snow level down lower until the shower passes. Being an unstable airmass, there is also a chance of thunderstorms.
Tomorrow the scattered showers will continue, some with small hail, and the thunderstorm threat remains. Lower level snow is also possible until around midmorning, winds westerly 10-15 gusting to 20, the high near 46, the snow level around 1200’. More of the same tomorrow night, including the small hail, thunderstorm threats and breezy winds, the lows near 33. The snow level drops to near 500’ after midnight so that lower level snow is again possible after midnight in the heavier showers that temporarily cools the air down.
Saturday we see little change in the forecast during the day, scattered showers, some heavy with small hail, still that thunderstorm threat, the winds now westerly 5-10, highs near 46, the snow level climbing to near 1500’ in the afternoon. The colder air starts to exit the region by Saturday night as another low pressure system drops down from the northwest, putting us in a southwesterly flow. This means the thunderstorm threat diminishes by Saturday night but the overnight temperature still drops to near 33 so the snow level will drop to between 500-1000’ again after midnight.
Sunday we start seeing a decrease in the shower activity, the snow level lifts to near 1500’, and the afternoon high climbs to near 49. Still about a 40% chance of showers that night with the low again dropping to near 33 so we could still see some brief periods of lower level snow with accumulating snow possible above 1000’.
The low pressure system impacts the area for the start of next week, bringing rain and breezy conditions, the flow also pushing up the snow level along with the temperatures. Monday the high near 50, the snow level climbing to near 2500’. The low Monday night down to near 36, the snow level up to near 2500’.
Tuesday looks mostly cloudy, rainy, the high near 55, the snow level up to near 3000’, still the chance of rain Tuesday night, lows near 36. More of the same under partly sunny skies for Wednesday.
I should mention that after today, the Coast Range passes could see periods of hazardous travel at times as the showers move across bringing snow above 1000’ from tonight on through Saturday. The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Warning for a possible 4-12” of snow with even higher amounts above 2000’. Below 1000’ anything from a dusting at sea level to 1” above sea level to below 1000’ is also possible. With this event, the higher you go, the higher the accumulation.
With all the snow this week, then the warmup for the start of next week, I took a peek at the river forecasts. They do show a bump up for next week, but nothing significant at this time…