MANY THINGS CONSIDERED: Campaigns Hiding in Plain Sight

In Idaho and a handful of other radically reactionary states, that might be enough for even a second-level Republican seeking re-election, but there are ominous political signals for candidates who should be sailing toward victory but instead are trying to run out the clock.

It’ all about Trump … and should be

Let’s review the state of the world for the GOP less than two years into Trump 2.0 and less than 50 days before a potentially decisive election.

After repeatedly pledging not to get involved in senseless, protracted “forever” wars, Republican officeholders – and particularly the War Wager-in-chief – have fully embraced the kind of winless, damaging, expensive war they came to hate when previous presidents of both parties stupidly used the nation’s military.

The Trump War with Iran was supposed to last a few days. It’s going on seven months. Munition stockpiles are hugely diminished. American servicemen and women are dead, along with thousands of civilians across the Middle East. Ship traffic through the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea is now subject to the daily calculations of an increasingly emboldened regime in Tehran. Gas prices continue to soar. American military and diplomatic facilitates across the region have suffered hundreds of millions of dollars in damages.

Contrary to the boastful assertions that the Iranian regime would collapse it hasn’t. Iran isn’t out of missiles, its nuclear aspirations remain and its options grow.

The One Big Beautiful Billionaires Bill was sold as the best thing since oleo margarine, but all its really done is pad the fortunes of the Epstein Class, brought dozens of rural hospitals to the brink of extinction and further exploded the national debt that now stands at $40 trillion.

Tariffs continue to drive up prices, inflation is increasing, diesel is approaching unaffordable, America is more and more loathed and ignored around the world.

The president of the United States, trading in stocks and crypto while issuing statements to move the markets, has enriched himself by billions since January 2025, while declaring open season on ethics and erasing the very idea of a conflict of interest, particularly as it applies to him and his family. The corruption is so vast and so unprecedented that a Russian oligarch and pal of Vladimir Putin paying for the wedding of the president’s oldest son is brushed off “as not a big deal” by, of course, the master of the self-enriching deal. ¹

Pardon a rhetorical question, but what is it with the American first family and Putin and his henchmen? The people of Ukraine surely ask this all the time.

“These people are all at the trough,” says former Trump White House lawyer Ty Cobb, and they’re doing it right out in the open “to try to create a sense of hopelessness and confusion and make us relent to the inevitability of Trump’s corruption.”

Being aware enough during his declining years to see, if not admit, how bad all this looks even to some of his more discerning supporters, Donald Trump has been working overtime – not on the Kennedy Center or his ballroom or his ceremonial arch or the reflecting pool – but on various schemes to try and rig the November election outcome. We’ll know soon enough the extent of the chaos he has sown.

There you have it: the Republican platform six weeks out, plus the unreleased Epstein Files.

The tiny campaigns of scared men

No wonder GOP campaigns are focused on everything other than what every American should know by now – this election is about chaos, incompetence and corruption. America has never before so urgently needed a throw the bums out election.

If they are really honest with themselves as they drop the remote and turn off Fox News, even the dwindling Trump loving Republican base feels the remorse that comes with pushing all their chips – twice – toward the biggest con artist in American political history. And this con artist has a 35% approval rate in the latest Economist poll.

So, let’s assume you’re one of those 35% who could watch the great man “shoot someone on Fifth Avenue” and feel just fine about it. As you listen to your candidates headed for November, what are you hearing?

Soothing words about the Iranian War, promises that inflation is on the mend, that gas and grocery prices are coming down, that worries about AI and data centers are hoaxes, that Trump is brilliant?

Naw.

Republican Senate candidates like Jim Risch in Idaho and Kurt Alme in Montana aren’t touting Trump policy “wins,” because there aren’t any. They’re hoping it’s once again enough to just have the “R” behind the name.

Risch’s media campaign attempts to portray the 83-year-old career politician and millionaire trial lawyer as a genuine, work shirt wearing Idaho cattleman who owns a shotgun, drives a tractor and, eh, right, loves public lands.

“If Risch was really a cattle rancher,” writes former Idaho Republican attorney general Jim Jones, “he would be raising hell about Donald Trump’s plan to bring in 660 million pounds of mystery meat from Brazil and Argentina to knock down the price of ground beef.”

But Risch isn’t talking about that issue, or for that matter even much touting his Trump endorsement. He can’t talk about Iran or Ukraine or presidential corruption because he’s willingly enabled the bad policies and the wholesale grifting. And Epstein – never heard of him.

In an excellent example of the kind of political reporting we used to routinely see, the Montana Free Press recently described Alme’s Montana campaign as involving “hiding in plain sight.” His campaign events fly under the radar and seem mostly designed to generate photos for social media use. The platform of the first-time candidate is pure vanilla.

Like Risch, Alme “rarely comments on the current actions of the Republican Congress or President Donald Trump,” even though he also has Trump’s endorsement. ²

These guys aren’t running campaigns, but rather a political version of the great North Carolina basketball coach Dean Smith’s four corner offense – pass, pass, pass … run out the clock.

Will it work?

Somethings to look for:

• If candidates like Risch and Alme start saying their elections could determine control of the Senate next year it could mean they see a genuine wave election coming that goes well beyond a few swing state campaigns.
• If troops of Trump surrogates suddenly descend on run out the clock campaigns you can bet the candidate’s own polling shows the race getting close.
• A sudden switch in strategy from ignoring the opponent to attacking the opponent is always a sign that things aren’t going well.

Welcome to the real campaign

The American economy is about to get a shock – collapsing AI companies, spiking oil prices, stupid trade wars – and we’re going to send the same clowns who enabled and encouraged all this back to Washington for more?

Democrats and an emerging class of independents offer a break with this chaotic present. God knows they can’t do any worse, and every election is about choosing between what you have right now and what could be better.

Staying with the status quo gets you the status quo.