TILLAMOOK COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT: Gordon’s Update – 10/4/21 – Weather, Special Election Nov. 2nd, COVID-19 Case Projections

By Gordon McCraw

Monday, October 4, 2021, 10:00am


Today we have a large upper level trough of low pressure that is drifting southeastward, pulling some mid and high clouds southeastward across the region with it. This is giving us some cloudy, misty skies this morning also that will dissipate later this morning. Winds today becoming westerly 4-8, the afternoon high neat 63. The clouds return tonight as a front approaches, late, the winds diminish, lows near 45.

Tomorrow we see cloudy conditions with rain and gusty southerly winds 10-15 gusting to 20 at the beaches, not as strong inland, as a front moves across, starting in the morning hours, tomorrow’s high only near 58. The rain transitions to scattered showers tomorrow evening behind the front, the winds diminish, lows near 45.

Wednesday the showers become more widely scattered under partly sunny skies with westerly winds 5-10, afternoon highs again only reaching around 58. We dry out further Wednesday night and with light wind and partly cloudy skies, the overnight lows drop into the upper 30s.

We dry out further during the day Thursday under mostly sunny skies, the highs still only make it to the upper 50s, then another disturbance drops southeastward into the area giving us a chance of rain Thursday night into Friday. The chance eases some Saturday but the cooler, wetter pattern returns by Sunday, highs near 59, lows near 43.

Important dates for the November 2, 2021 Special Election

October 2021

12 Voter registration deadline (Registration cards postmarked October 12, 2021 are valid)

13 First Day ballots will be mailed and Dropsites Open

28 Last day to mail ballots

November 2021

2 Election Day

22 Last day to certify election results

The Elections office in the Tillamook County Courthouse will be open on Election Day 7:00am-8:00pm.

Newest COVID-19 modeling report projects decrease in daily cases and hospitalizations

On October 1st, OHA released its latest COVID-19 forecast showing a continued decline in daily cases and hospitalizations through mid-October.

According to the report, the effective reproduction rate — the expected number of secondary cases that a single case generates — was estimated at .81 on Sept. 15, which is lower than last week’s projection.

At that level of transmission, the report estimates 320 cases per 100,000 people, or an average of 955 daily cases and 56 hospitalizations for the two-week period between Oct. 6 and Oct. 19.

The modeling report also estimated the potential impact of a 20% increase in transmission.

Under that scenario, the pace of declining newly diagnosed cases and hospitalizations would slow considerably, with an estimated average of 505 per 100,000 people, projecting an estimated average of 1,515 new cases and 94 hospitalizations over the same period.

The report also indicated that hospitals across the state are seeing declines in COVID-19 hospitalizations. However, COVID-19 bed occupancy levels remain higher than during previous surges.

The report also noted a slow increase in high-risk behaviors and protocol fatigue.

Vaccinations remain the most effective shield against COVID-19. Oregonians should wear masks when in indoor public spaces and when outdoors among crowds.