| Elections are in the news.
The Supreme Court is hearing a vote-by-mail case, Congress is considering the SAVE America Act, and Donald Trump just voted by mail after spending years claiming mail-in voting is cheating.
President Trump signed a sweeping executive order on Tuesday, March 31, that attempts to restrict mail-in voting, a White House priority certain to face significant legal challenges. The order directs the U.S. Department of Homeland Security along with the Social Security Administration to compile a list of voting-age American citizens in each state and share it with state election officials.
The order also requires the U.S. Postal Service to only send and receive ballots that include tracking barcodes.
The President’s order represents a major escalation in his effort to assert presidential control over elections, which under the U.S. Constitution are administered by the states. Trump last year attempted to unilaterally impose a proof of citizenship requirement to vote in federal elections in an executive order that was blocked in federal court.
The move also reflects a long-held focus by Trump and his allies on noncitizen voters. Studies have shown noncitizen voting is extremely rare.
For the most part, Oregonians love to mail their ballots. A proposal to ask Oregonians to end vote-by-mail elections in 2025 generated so much reaction that the Legislature’s website ceased to function properly. SB 210’s sponsor, state Senator David Brock-Smith, R-Port Orford, dubbed it “the bill that broke OLIS”
Oregon began to experiment with vote-by-mail in the 1980’s. Oregon voters approved Measure 60 in 1998 by a margin of 69.4 percent to 30.6 percent, making Oregon the first state to conduct elections entirely by mail. By 2000, Oregon became the first state in the country to hold a presidential election entirely by mail.
Back then, mail-in voting was a bi-partisan effort to make voting easier, improve access, lower administrative cost, and increase participation. Supporters argued it would save the state about $3 million in years with both a primary and a general election. Those are year 2000 numbers.
People worry the system is too loose. Too anonymous. Too easy to manipulate. Too far removed from the old picture in their head of a person walking into a polling place, standing in line, casting a ballot, and going home with an “I voted” sticker and mild self-satisfaction.
Some of those concerns are sincere. Some are exaggerated. Some are fed by social media, rumor, partisan messaging, and the modern American habit of becoming wildly certain about things we haven’t actually studied. But they are real in the sense that people genuinely feel them.
Of course voter rolls should be accurate. Of course signatures should be checked. Of course chain of custody matters. Of course deadlines should be clear. Of course the public should have confidence that lawful ballots are counted and unlawful ballots are not.
No election system is perfect. But mail voting is pretty good. A 2020 analysis by Oregon’s Legislative Fiscal Office found 38 criminal convictions for voter fraud across 20 years and nearly 61 million ballots cast in Oregon. That works out to roughly 0.000006 percent. And, the Brookings Institution later found that nationally, mail-voting fraud occurred at an average rate of about four cases per 10 million votes, or roughly 0.000043 percent.
The SAVE America Act would require documentary proof of citizenship to register to vote. Easy. Clean. Tough. Politically marketable.
The problem is that people change their names. People misplace documents. Only about half of Americans have passports. Critics have also warned that married women whose legal names differ from their birth certificates could face particular problems.
And the broader problem is obvious: if you pile enough documentation requirements onto voting, you will absolutely make it harder for some ineligible people to get through. You will also make it harder for a much larger number of eligible people to get through.
I support an election system that is safe, secure, easy, and allows as many qualified citizens to vote as possible. I want more people making decisions, not less. And I will continue to support Oregon’s vote-by-mail. |