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By Gordon McCraw, Meteorologist for the Tillamook County Pioneer
We had the first front push across this morning, but because of the dry air in place, we only ended up getting around ¼” of rain in some areas. This first front weakens as it pushes east today, then we catch a short break until the next, stronger front pushes in tomorrow morning. So, tonight we see some patchy fog, but then the rain returns ahead of the front, and the winds become southerly 8-12 gusting to 20, the low around 50.
The next front pushes in moderate, occasionally heavy rain tomorrow morning, along with some gusty southwesterly winds 15-20 gusting to 35 with gusts 40-50 possible at the beaches. Once the front pushes through tomorrow morning we transition over to showers, with a chance of thunderstorms starting in the afternoon, tomorrow’s high temperature near 60. We will continue to see breezy southwesterly winds 15-20 gusting to 30 tomorrow night, low temperatures near 50. The front and showers are likely to bring around 1½-3” of rain to the area from early Tuesday morning through early Wednesday morning. While this will cause increased flow rates in the area rivers, their levels are quite low still, so none are expected to rise significantly and therefore flooding concerns remain low. The only river in danger of even reaching bankfull is the Grays River in Washington. There is, however, a slight chance of some localized small stream or urban flooding with the rain because of clogged drains or culverts from all the fall leaves.
By Wednesday the fronts are through, but we see an associated trough of low pressure that lagged behind moving in, so we continue to see rainshowers with possible thunderstorms along with some breezy westerly winds 14-18 gusting to 30, the high near 59. The thunderstorm threat diminishes Wednesday night though we continue to see some scattered showers that become more widely scattered, then diminish by around midnight, the lows near 47. We likely see another ½-1” of rain Wednesday.
A ridge of high pressure moves in Thursday, we could see some patchy morning fog with all the moisture still on the ground, but we do dry out under partly sunny skies Thursday, and with some possible easterly winds, the afternoon high temperature climbs to near 65. Look for mostly cloudy skies Thursday night, lows near 50.
The models show a trough of low pressure approaching from the west Friday bringing mostly cloudy skies and an increasing chance of rain or rainshowers starting Friday afternoon with precipitation likely by Friday night through Saturday, and into Sunday, the highs near 64, lows near 52.
