By Gordon McCraw, Meteorologist for the Tillamook County Pioneer
Thanks to a front passing through overnight, and a trough moving across that pushed the system off to the southeast, the Tillamook area saw between ½ to ¾” of rain. As you move southward, the numbers were a little higher with the Lincon City area seeing just over 1” of rain. All this is being followed by a low pressure area that is dropping down the coast from the Vancouver Island area so we continue to see showers with possible thunderstorms until around midnight when high pressure starts to build in, which eases, then diminishes any remaining showers in the early morning hours. The winds will also be easing, then becoming calm before sunrise, and with all the moisture, a few breaks in the clouds, and the temperature dropping to near 41, patchy morning fog is possible by the morning commute.
So, we start out with a slight chance of widely scattered light showers tomorrow, but with the ridge building, we will enjoy mostly sunny skies in the afternoon, the winds becoming northerly 4-8, highs near 58. The chance of patchy fog returns tomorrow night and in the early morning hours as the winds diminish after around midnight, the low drops to near 39.
The ridge continues to dominate the pattern Wednesday which gives us mostly sunny skies again, the winds northerly 5-10, and the high temperature back up near 57. Then there is a chance that a disturbance will ride across in the flow, so there is a slight chance of rain Wednesday night, the low down near 38.
We see mostly sunny skies still on Thursday though there is still that slight chance of the disturbance giving us some rain or rainshowers, the afternoon high near 58, then the models show a trough of low pressure moving towards the area which means back come the clouds and a chance of rain Thursday night into Friday with the high up near 60, lows near 41 Thursday night but making it up to near 48 Friday night.
Sorry folks, the weekend looks mostly cloudy to cloudy with rain likely Saturday as another disturbance moves across. Then Sunday the models say another decent low pressure area develops to the west and moves up into the Pacific Northwest giving us more rain, and the longer range models suggest more periods of rain likely for next week as well.
Finally, now is that time of year when we start hearing about what to expect this winter in the way of weather. One of the indicators for what to expect is whether they are forecasting El Nino or La Nina conditions. The folks at the Climate Prediction Center are suggesting they are seeing a cooling of the equatorial ocean waters which leads them to forecast that this year we are likely to see a weak La Nina year, or at least a 60% chance of one. During La Nina years, we tend to be cooler and wetter than average, and we often see an increase in the mountain snow over the winter months under these conditions also. The Climate Prediction Center forecasts the weak La Nina conditions will persist through the January to March time frame as well. All this to say, if you are a betting person, the odds are slightly in favor of us seeing the cooler and wetter conditions this winter. Does this mean that you should prepare for wetter and cooler? The answer from a former Emergency Manager is YES, you should always be prepared. Does it mean we will see it? The best we can offer is…maybe…but maybe not!
