By Gordon McCraw, Meteorologist for the Tillamook County Pioneer
Well, let me first say, Happy Veterans Day to all my fellow Service Members, and thank you for your service. For the younger folks, Veterans Day was initially called Armistice Day to recognize the end of WWI which was in 1918. It was renamed Veterans Day in 1954 to honor all military veterans. Being a holiday, I hope all veterans enjoy the day off!
As for this Veteran, I am afraid the weather never takes a day off, so we had the first in a series of systems bring a decent amount of rain from yesterday evening through this morning. The coast also saw some gusty winds of 30-50 in a few spots. This all transitioned to post frontal showers for the afternoon, and being an unstable airmass, there was that chance of thunderstorms that continues to exist tonight. The thunderstorm threat eases by around midnight, still the breezy southwesterly winds 10-15 gusting to 25, tonight’s low temperature near 44.
Another exciting day tomorrow, we start out with more showers that will become more scattered, the winds are increasing to southerly 15-20 gusting to 25, again, higher at the beaches, the high near 55. Another system moves in tomorrow night, and we see increasing rain and winds, those winds becoming southerly 20-25 gusting to 40, gusting to near 50 down at the beaches. And not to leave the winds out, there is a High Wind Watch from tomorrow evening through early Wednesday morning for southerly winds possibly 30-40 gusting to 60 at the beaches. And not to leave the winds out, there is a High Wind Watch from Tuesday evening through early Wednesday morning for southerly winds possibly 30-40 gusting to 60 at the beaches.
Back to showers with possible thunderstorms Wednesday, the winds still elevated from the southwest 20-25 gusting to 35, highs near 56. Still more showers with possible thunderstorms Wednesday night, and still breezy, the low near 44.
As far as how much rain is expected for the area with this system, well, the best guess is 2 to 2 1/2” in town and 2-4″ in the Coast Range. This will drive the rivers up some more, and though the current river forecasts do reflect a flooding chance, the NWS folks say there is about a 15% chance the level could actually reach minor Flood Stage. There is also a chance of Tidal Overflow Flooding in the usual locations in the county during the astronomically high tides (King Tides) on Wednesday and Thursday. With prolonged periods of moderate rain, Urban and Small Stream Flooding is also possible.
So, for Thursday, the cool, showery weather, with the thunderstorm threat, will continue during the day Thursday as a trough of low pressure moves across, then moves east of us on Friday, so the shower chance eases Friday night but, more systems are expected to bring rain and rainshowers Saturday with rainy and breezy conditions for Sunday. I guess it’s that time of year!
And for any NWS Advisories, Watches or Warnings, there are a few: Offshore waters have a Storm Watch valid from 4pm tomorrow through Wednesday at 7am, and a Hazardous Seas Warning valid now through 4pm tomorrow. All this is causing a High Surf Advisory for the coast that is valid from midnight tonight to 4pm tomorrow. That is the list for now, subject to change as always.
