NEWS UPDATE FROM STATE REPRESENTATIVE DAVID GOMBERG: Lots of Numbers and Winding Down Wind

10/14/24
Dear Neighbors and Friends,

I’m not sure if this is one of my most interesting, or most boring updates….

“Oregon by the Numbers” is an annual report by Roseburg-based The Ford Family Foundation, collecting data from the state’s 36 counties and drawing comparison between rural and urban areas. This synopsis is largely taken from an article this week in the Yachats News. I’m focusing here on Lincoln County because our District covers it entirely. Details on Benton and Lane can be found in the full document.

By the Numbers paints a challenging picture of Lincoln County on subjects ranging from education to food insecurity and child poverty to family financial hardship. Foundation researchers are quick to point out that all of the data in its latest report is from 2022 when Oregon was emerging from the three-year Covid pandemic.

While Lincoln County sits exactly in the middle in Oregon’s population – 18^th of 36 counties – with 50,334 residents it:

Ranked in the bottom third of all counties — 25^th — in median household income at $57,795 compared with a statewide average of $76,632;
Ranked in the middle third — 14^th at 47.2 percent — in the percentage of households in financial hardship, which is a measure of annual incomes below what is needed to cover the basic cost of living. The overall percentage for 21 rural counties was 48.2 percent; the overall Oregon rate was 44.6 percent, and the urban rate was 43.6 percent;
Ranked in the upper third — sixth at 12.5 percent for the number of residents – who have limited or uncertain access to adequate food;
Ranked in the upper third – sixth at 20.2 percent – for child poverty, which is the percentage of children under 18 who live in families whose income falls below the federal poverty level. The rate for 21 rural counties was 12.5 percent; the statewide rate was 13.5 percent and the urban rate 13.8 percent;
Ranked in the upper third – seventh at 8.7 per 1,000 population – for the number of children in foster care. The rate for rural Oregon counties was 8.2 per 1,000 residents, the Oregon rate was 6.1 per 1,000 and the urban rate was 5.5 per 1,000;

There are other areas where Lincoln County’s numbers stand out, including:

A ranking of 22 out of 36 (low is good) with a crime rate of 20.1 offenses per 1,000 residents. Measured crimes include murder, rape, robbery, assault, burglary, thefts and arson; The statewide rate was 33.1 and the rural rate was 23.5;
The county’s residents are older, with the four largest age groups being 55-59, 60-64, 65-69 and 70-74;
That results in a “labor force participation” rate of 50.4 percent compared with a 62.4 percent statewide rate. The county is ranked 29^th of Oregon’s 36 counties in that category;
The county is 80 percent white, with almost 10 percent of the population identifying as Hispanic/Latino;
Property taxes are high — $2,507 per person — compared with other counties, ranking it the fifth highest in the state just behind Multnomah County and three rural, eastern Oregon counties. The statewide property tax per person is $1,862 and $1,437 for rural counties;
The top industries for jobs are restaurants and bars, lodging businesses and education.

Given the numbers for food insecurity, child poverty, and the disturbing fact that one in five of our kids is reported as homeless, it is not surprising that Lincoln County ranks low on some education measures compared with other counties. This includes:

31.7 percent of third-graders were reading at grade level compared with 39.4 percent for all of Oregon, 35.4 percent for rural counties and 40.7 percent for urban counties;
18.8 percent of fifth-graders were performing at grade level for math, compared with 30.7 percent for all of Oregon, 25.8 percent for rural counties and 32.3 percent for urban areas;
But by the ninth grade, 83.7 percent of Lincoln County students were on track to graduate – the same as the statewide rate and higher than the rural rate of 80.8 percent;
Lincoln County’s five-year graduation rate in 2022 was 77.7 percent, compared with a statewide rate of 83.8 percent and 82 percent for rural counties.

Comparative reports like this help give us a better awareness of who we are, where we need attention, and identify priorities for improvement. I encourage you to read the Yachats News story and peruse the larger “Oregon by the Numbers” report.

Earlier this Summer, I met with the Benton County Farm Bureau. This week I joined the Lincoln County Small Woodlands Association Fall Meeting to talk taxes, wildfire recovery, and spraying. And in a few days, I’ll sit down with the Lincoln County Farm Bureau.

The value of Oregon’s agricultural products soared 35% in five years ending in 2022, according to newly released federal data — a big jump that highlights farms’ economic role in just about every county in the state.

In 2022, Oregon produced nearly $6.8 billion of nursery plants, beef, hay, berries, potatoes, beans, milk, eggs and Christmas trees, among other products. That’s according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s latest census of the nation’s agricultural output, conducted every five years.

Because Oregon’s farms are spread all across the state, agriculture is one thing nearly all communities have in common.

Plants, trees, shrubs, flowers and grass are Oregon’s most valuable farm products, the census found. They’re grown most in the damp, fertile soil of Marion and Clackamas counties. Marion County’s farm products had the most market value of any county in the state, $874 million — about 13% of Oregon’s total.

Cattle are Oregon’s second-most valuable agricultural good. The state’s cattle trade is concentrated in Morrow County, whose farm products are just behind Marion County’s in terms of total market value.

Oregon farming is far less important to the state’s economy than it was 50 years ago when agriculture accounted for about 1 in every 18 jobs. But Oregon’s economy is about twice as dependent on farming as the average state’s.

While agriculture is growing, manufacturing in Oregon is struggling.

In recent years, though, Oregon’s manufacturing sector has fallen behind the U.S. pace. The June 2024 economic forecast by the state economist highlighted widespread job losses in the sector from 2019 to 2024, encompassing sharp pandemic-related declines and only partial recoveries. In contrast, U.S. manufacturing employment in early 2024 exceeded pre-pandemic levels.

Oregon Business & Industry has released its latest report on the state of manufacturing in Oregon. Here are the key findings:

Oregon’s manufacturing sector is underperforming compared to the national average, reversing a 30-year trend. Although Oregon still outperforms California and Washington when measuring manufacturing as a share of state GDP, its status as a top manufacturing state is slipping as states like Illinois, Minnesota, Texas, and Wisconsin gain ground.
Economic challenges extend beyond manufacturing. The widespread weakness in Oregon job growth suggests that broader conditions—including housing unaffordability and recent shifts in tax and service policy—could be affecting the economy generally. Population declines have accompanied, and likely contributed to, the weak job numbers.
Manufacturing remains a crucial driver of high-wage jobs and economic growth. The average wage in the high-tech/electronics subsector is $152,500, more than double the average wage in other non-manufacturing industries in the region, which is $74,100. That figure is nearly triple the average wage in other non-manufacturing industries across the state, which is $55,700.
Earnings premium continues and is amplified with educational attainment. Oregonians with less than a high school diploma earn 11.4% more in the manufacturing sector than in other industries. This premium rises to 16.7% for high school graduates and reaches 64.2% for those with graduate degrees.
Oregon has a comparative advantage in manufacturing largely because of strong productivity of its high-tech/electronics subsector, particularly in semiconductors, and of wood products.
The state’s wood products are rebounding. Wood products industries faced a six-decade low in the late 1990s, but are rebounding due to mass timber.
Oregon faces challenges in attracting new manufacturing investments. While well-positioned for semiconductor investments given the state’s existing cluster, Oregon is lagging in attracting investments in other growing areas such as electric vehicles, clean energy infrastructure, and biomanufacturing.
Recent policy changes and economic conditions create uncertainty. Rising costs, particularly in housing and taxes, coupled with recent policy shifts, may be outweighing Oregon’s traditional quality-of-life benefits for manufacturers. The lack of development-ready land is also frequently cited as a primary obstacle for manufacturers looking to expand in or relocate to Oregon, potentially driving businesses to other states.

Manufacturers drive the economy not only by producing a diverse range of goods—such as vehicles, fabricated metals, paper, cross-laminated timber, semiconductors, cheese, wine, and spirits — but also by creating a ripple effect through their supply chain purchases and employee spending. These purchases fuel other industries by supplying the materials and inputs needed for production, while employee spending boosts the local economy.

Through these indirect and induced effects, also known as employment multipliers, the manufacturing sector influences nearly every industry and community across the state.

A simulation of a 10% increase in manufacturing output in Oregon would boost the state’s GDP by $7 billion annually and support 50,800 new jobs. This increase in economic activity would, in turn, generate an additional $4.2 billion in personal income.

This newsletter has been closely tracking proposed floating wind energy proposals in federal waters off Oregon’s coastline.

In recent weeks, state officials found out that four of the five companies eligible to bid in the lease sale no longer planned to participate. That left only one company, an Oregon-based solar developer, to bid in the auction, leading the federal agency to cancel the auction over insufficient bidder interest. The announcement came after Governor Tina Kotek sent a terse letter urging the U.S. Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) to terminate the lease sale. The governor cited lack of market readiness and growing opposition from coastal communities and state legislators as well as a tribal lawsuit as the reasons for halting the lease auction. The governor also expressed concern about the non-competitive nature of the auction, given that most developers deemed eligible to participate no longer plan to bid.

I have often opined that we need more renewable energy and we certainly want the good new jobs such projects would create. But we need to make sure such development is done right with appropriate engagement with coastal communities, tribes, industries and environmental concerns.

Little is known about what such floating wind farms would do to the marine environment because the technology is still in development. Only a few pilot floating wind farms have been built in Europe and Asia. Government officials have also acknowledged that future floating turbine blades will be much larger than those currently installed, so current visual simulations and impacts on bird species are only guesses.

My recent conversations with fishing interests in Scotland and the Netherlands reported loss of 30-50% of their traditional fishing grounds. In response to the local Oregon decision, Heather Mann, executive director of Midwater Trawlers Cooperative, a fishing group based in Newport said “This is not only a huge relief to the fishing industry, but to all Oregonians who want to understand what the impacts from floating offshore wind energy development could be.”

So if BOEM has cancelled the lease auction and we don’t know how or when future discussions will evolve, why am I bringing this all up again?

BOEM has just released a series of visual simulations to provide spatially accurate and realistic images of hypothetical offshore wind projects in the Oregon Call Areas and how they might appear from different locations along the coast.

Map of Oregon Coastline with BOEM-Oregon Call Areas, Draft Wind Energy Areas, and Key Observation Points.

The visual simulations model a total of 262 20MW turbines for a total generating capacity of approximately 5,240 MW of renewable energy. Each turbine has a hub height of 725 ft, rotor diameter of 935 ft, and maximum height at the blade tip of 1,171 ft.

And what is clear from these hypothetical simulations is that depending on weather and visibility, these 1,000-foot tall structures more than twenty miles offshore would be visible from the coastline during daylight and nighttime hours.

Harris Beach Simulation, Noon and Night, Heading W – Proposed View – Maximum Visibility.

Again, BOEM has canceled the proposed lease auction and we don’t know if or when future discussions will evolve. But as these conversations continue, I thought it helpful to understand figuratively and literally what we might be looking at.

There was plenty going on across the District this past week. Here are a few highlights.

Tuesday I joined AFSCME – the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees – at a reception in Corvallis. These are the good folks that support our kids and parents, fill our potholes, and protect the most vulnerable in our communities. Joining me on the stage were Senator James Manning, and soon-to-be Philomath Mayor Christopher McMorran.

Wednesday, I had breakfast with all Lincoln County Mayors, attended the Newport Chamber luncheon, met with Debbie Scacco at the Port of Toledo, and helped break ground for the new Lincoln County Animal Shelter in Waldport.

Thursday was a lively candidate forum hosted by the League of Women Voters in Newport. I’m not opposed this November but still feel it is important to show up, answer questions, be accessible and accountable. You can watch the full debate with legislative, county, and local candidates here.

Friday I had fun calling bingo at the Soiree de Galaa Au bord de la Mer – Parisian-themed Gala by the Sea benefiting the St. Augustine Catholic Church as they celebrate their 100^th year in 2025.

Saturday Susan and I dropped in on the Beach Bark – a fundraiser for North County animals in need. Susan hiked the beach and attended the lunch while I ran to Waldport for the Lincoln County Small Woodlands Association Fall Meeting.

Sunday – well Sunday, I spent the morning writing this newsletter and then Susan and I got away for some downtime and good jazz at Beachcrest.

The coming week includes meetings with local special education teachers, wildfire survivors, and the Samaritan House Donor Appreciation Reception.

On Tuesday the schedule currently shows eight virtual meetings with groups or subjects including Oregon Consumer Justice, Wheelchair Right to Repair, the Women’s Foundation of Oregon, Oregon Trial Lawyers, local environmental activists, and a conversation with a Seattle-based research geophysicist, specializing in earthquake seismology for the Earthquake Hazard Program in the Pacific Northwest, named Joan Gomberg. I’ll take a moment to explore if we are actually related.

Warm Regards,