By Gordon McCraw, Meteorologist for the Tillamook County Pioneer
Well, after about a year and a half of La Nina conditions in the tropical Pacific, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center reports that the sea surface temperatures, that are measured weekly, appear to be warming. The numbers are fed into their computer which provides a forecast for El Nino, Neutral, or La Nina conditions, all of which can have impacts on global weather patterns, especially in the winter months.
As you likely recall, La Nina conditions are when the Sea Surface Temperatures in the eastern equatorial part of the Pacific Ocean are lower than normal, and this can impact global weather, for the Pacific Northwest, this condition usually resulting in cooler, wetter winters with above average snow possibilities. I think it is safe to say, this is verified!
Now it appears we are transitioning to El Nino conditions for the first time since the 18-19 season. Currently, we are phasing into Neutral conditions with the Sea Surface Temperatures expected to continue warming. This all means that conditions are favorable for El Nino conditions developing within the next 6 months, with a 62% chance that these conditions will develop sometime between May and July and persist into the fall. While we are in the Neutral Phase, we likely see no seasonal-scale influence on the global atmospheric circulation and patterns. In other words, it will be what it will be!
One effect of El Nino conditions is that it tends to strengthen hurricane season in the Pacific but causes less, or weaker activity in the Atlantic. I am sure glad I moved away from Southeast Louisiana and don’t have to worry or forecast these events! For our area, an El Nino pattern in the summer usually brings above average temperatures with average rainfall.
So, none of this is written in stone and El Nino or La Nina are just indicators of potential patterns. As we all know, Mother Nature is going to do whatever Mother Nature wants to do, regardless of forecasts and conditions.
I have attached the latest Seasonal Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center for the period April, May, and June 2023, which shows a below average precipitation chance and equal chances of above or below average temperatures for that period. Only time will tell!
