By Gordon McCraw, Meteorologist for the Tillamook County Pioneer
A quick look at the satellite picture paints the weather picture. There is a trough of low pressure over the region that is bringing the area showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms. All this after a couple of fronts over the weekend brought just under an inch of rain to the airport both Saturday and Sunday, with a little over an inch seen in the Coast Range. We saw a few more showers and thunderstorms moving across today that have given the area another quarter to a half inch or so. The rivers did respond with increased flow rates but being as low as they were, the 2-3’ rise did little more than to excite the fishermen. It looks like the unstable air will still be producing rainshowers with possible thunderstorms tonight with westerly winds 5-10, tonight’s low near 41.
We will likely see some partly sunny skies tomorrow as the trough continues to slide to the east with a few more scattered showers still around, especially with daytime heating, the winds swinging around to southerly 4-8, the high near 56. Then more scattered showers are expected to linger tomorrow night, still with the southerly winds, the low drops to near 43.
We have another decent system that will bring us more rain with another front Wednesday, southerly winds 10-15 gusting to 20, the high near 54. After this, we see post-frontal showers and possible thunderstorms with the lagging trough of low pressure, the low near 43.
Sorry Trick or Treaters, Thursday the showers and possible thunderstorms continue as the parent low pressure system is dropping down towards the Oregon coast, which enhances the shower and thunderstorm chance, possibly bringing some gusty afternoon winds also, highs near 54. Look for more of the same Thursday night, lows near 40. This new round of rain and showers does push the rivers up some more, but the river flooding concerns continue to remain low.
More rain is expected for Friday as that low pushes into Oregon, then races northeastward, but leaving a trough of low pressure over the area, so we continue to have a threat of rain or rainshowers Saturday and Sunday as well, though some of the models suggest drier weather could move in.
Is this typical weather for our area you ask? Well, we are almost into November, which is typically wet with several fronts and low pressure systems that bring rain or drizzle, with daily high temperatures in the 40-50 degree range. In the past, some of these fronts have brought us heavy rain and high winds, especially later in the month. We have also seen some flooding in the past from November systems. The most recent one was on November 12th, 2021, when the Wilson River climbed to 14.79’. Many may remember the historic flood of 2006 (the year that I moved to Oregon) when the Wilson River climbed to near 22.84. For the new folks, the Flood Level for the Wilson River is 12’.
